Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned on May 20 that any renewed American military campaign would trigger a conflict extending "far beyond the region," stating that "devastating blows will crush you" in places adversaries "cannot even imagine" [19][2][7]. The threat came as the IRGC Navy announced that 26 commercial vessels, including Chinese supertankers and a South Korean oil tanker, had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours under Iranian armed forces' coordination [7][2][3]. Separately, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's chief economist, Máximo Torero, warned that continued disruption of the strait would spike global food prices by blocking fertilizer and energy exports, with developing nations most vulnerable during the planting season [27].

The IRGC's statement, carried across outlets from Singapore to Turkey to Vietnam, said Iran had not yet deployed the full power of its military despite facing "the two most expensive armies in the world" [14]. Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said Tehran would "open new fronts" using "new equipment and new methods" if attacked again, adding that the ceasefire period had been used to consolidate combat capabilities [1][3][14]. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakçi said a return to war would bring "many more surprises," and claimed that Iranian forces were the first to down an American F-35 fighter jet [7]. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf accused Washington of "seeking to start a new war" and said Iran would "never give in to intimidation, under any circumstances" [3][6].

President Donald Trump, speaking hours before the IRGC statement, said he had been "an hour away" from ordering a fresh bombing campaign but postponed it at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to allow negotiations [2][9][22]. He set a deadline of "two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday" for a deal, warning that otherwise Iran would face "another big hit" [4][17]. Vice President JD Vance told reporters the administration had made "good progress" and that "we're in a pretty good spot here," while adding that the military remained "locked on target" and that the choice was between a negotiated agreement preventing Iranian nuclear weapons or a return to war [1][2][7][11].

The gap between Washington's rhetoric and Tehran's framing of the strait transit illustrated a central fault line in global coverage. Iranian and allied outlets presented the IRGC Navy's coordination of 26 ship passages as an assertion of sovereign control over the waterway — positioning Iran as a gatekeeper rather than a blockading force [7][11][15]. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun confirmed to parliamentarians that "At this very moment, our oil tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz," bound for Ulsan in cooperation with Iranian authorities [3]. Western outlets, by contrast, foregrounded the mine threat and the fragility of the transit: French Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin said France had no definitive information on reports of at least 10 mines in the strait but was "preparing for possible mine-clearing operations" [7].

Analysts questioned whether either side's posture could break the deadlock. Neil Quilliam of Chatham House said "Trump's threats have lost all credibility" and that "both sides are too far apart in terms of what they are willing to accept … but neither side want to go back to war. So they are just stuck" [17]. Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB, said Trump's verbal interventions were having diminishing market impact "unless backed by facts," adding that "no real progress" had been made in negotiations [4]. Timo Emden of Emden Research described markets as "staggering between hope and fear of escalation" — "Die Märkte taumeln derzeit zwischen Hoffnung und Eskalationsangst" — with German 10-year bond yields hitting a 15-year high of 3.19 percent on inflation concerns tied to the conflict [13].

The humanitarian and economic toll drew attention from multiple directions. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper warned that the strait disruption could trigger a global food crisis, stressing that fertilizer-carrying ships must be able to transit freely within weeks [7]. Iranian President Mesud Pezeshkian called on citizens to conserve energy, saying the country faced gasoline and supply restrictions due to wartime infrastructure damage [7][22]. A report from Tehran published by Infobae captured the psychological weight on civilians: civil engineer Amirali, 33, described "una sensación extraña: no estamos en guerra, pero tampoco estamos en paz" (a strange sensation: we are not at war, but we are not at peace either), while teacher Leila said her nine-year-old daughter mistakes thunder for bombs [18].

Domestic opposition to the war was growing inside the United States as well. A poll by the Eurasia Group's Institute for Global Affairs found that nearly half of Americans felt less safe because of the conflict, with 46 percent of Republicans reporting difficulty affording necessities [21]. No majority supported any of six proposed justifications for the war, and four Republican senators — including Bill Cassidy of Louisiana — advanced a War Powers Resolution to limit the president's authority to continue hostilities [4][21]. Members of the House Armed Services Committee pressed CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper in hearings; Representative Chrissy Houlahan asked why, despite claims of destroying thousands of targets, "it feels like we are losing" [7].

China's Xi Jinping, meeting Vladimir Putin in Beijing, called for a "comprehensive ceasefire," saying the Gulf situation was "at a pivotal juncture between war and peace" and that resuming hostilities would be "inadvisable" — "une reprise des hostilités serait inopportune" [3][11]. A Middle East Eye exclusive reported that Trump had postponed the planned attack after Gulf allies and his own officials warned that striking during the Hajj pilgrimage would strand hundreds of thousands of pilgrims, with senior Gulf and US officials saying war is expected to resume once Hajj passes [23]. Pentagon officials cited munition shortages and increased sophistication of Iranian air defenses as factors that could hinder a renewed offensive [23].

Pakistan's interior minister, Mohsen Naqvi, traveled to Tehran for the second time in under a week to mediate, while Iran's latest peace proposal — demanding reparations, sanctions relief, release of frozen funds, and an end to the US marine blockade — repeated terms Washington had previously rejected [11][9][17]. The next days-long window set by Trump's own deadline is expected to determine whether the fragile ceasefire holds or hostilities resume.