Segments of Iran's security establishment are contemplating retaliatory strikes against Emirati territory or Israeli operatives based there for every Israeli strike on Lebanon, according to an analysis citing current and former officials [9]. The reported "UAE for Lebanon" strategy would place pressure on the United States to restrain Israel and marks a new axis of escalation in a conflict already straining the April 8 ceasefire. Separately, South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Park Yoon-joo announced that technical analysis concluded "Noor-series anti-ship missiles developed by Iran" were likely used in the May 4 attack on the cargo vessel HMM Namu in the Strait of Hormuz, and said Seoul plans to summon the Iranian ambassador to deliver a formal protest [21][11].
The dual-track dynamic of active military exchanges alongside continuing negotiations sharpened over the past 48 hours. US Central Command said American forces "conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces," targeting missile sites and boats it said were laying mines near Bandar Abbas [3][4]. Iran's foreign ministry condemned the same strikes as "a gross violation" of the ceasefire and of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, calling them "an act of bad faith" while holding Washington "responsible for all consequences" [3][5][6]. The IRGC said its air-defense units had downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone and fired at a fighter jet that entered Iranian airspace, and reserved what it called a "legitimate and definite" right to retaliate [16][4].
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal from the talks "is still possible, but it will take a few days," and warned that the Strait of Hormuz had to be open "one way or the other" [3][5]. Iranian negotiators acknowledged some progress but said a deal "is not imminent" [3]. The emerging framework reportedly involves a 14-point memorandum of understanding and a proposed ceasefire extension — reported variously as 30 or 60 days — in exchange for a sanctions waiver on oil sales and reopening the strait [10][8][7]. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute assessed that the memorandum "looks less like a historic peace settlement and more like a ceasefire-management mechanism," while Nicole Grajewski of Sciences Po's Center for International Research argued that for any deal to be politically viable in Tehran, it would need to be framed as a managed stabilisation rather than capitulation under military pressure [12].
Tehran's demands extend well beyond the strait. Iranian diplomat Hossein Nooschabadi listed conditions including an end to hostilities on all fronts — including Lebanon — the release of up to $24 billion in frozen assets, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and the withdrawal of American forces from around Iran [10]. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in a written statement during the Hajj pilgrimage, declared that "nations and territories of the region will no longer be a shield for American bases" [5][14]. In a separate statement, Khamenei declared that "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" would remain enduring slogans [5][12]. Senior lawmaker Abbas Moghtadaei told Al Jazeera that "the fundamental principle is distrust towards America" [12], while IRGC aerospace commander Majid Mousavi invoked the late Supreme Leader: "As our martyred imam said, negotiating with the enemy is pure loss" [12]. Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said: "The Americans talk too much and keep changing their story in a moment. We've said many times that we will show on the battlefield what we are capable of" [12]. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, pledged "there will be no retreat" [12].
IRGC commanders projected military confidence even as they described renewed full-scale war as unlikely. Mohammad Akbarzadeh, the IRGC Navy's deputy political chief, said "the possibility of war is low because of the enemy's weakness" but warned that Iran's armed forces "are lying in wait with full magazines" and would turn the southern coast "into a graveyard for aggressors" [15][20]. Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said: "The Americans talk too much and keep changing their story in a moment. We've said many times that we will show on the battlefield what we are capable of" [12]. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, pledged "there will be no retreat" [12].
On the Israeli front, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was "deepening its operations in Lebanon" with "large forces in the field" and vowed to "crush" Hezbollah [5][15]. Israeli strikes killed 31 people in Lebanon in a single day, according to Al Jazeera [19]. Hezbollah said its fighters "clashed with the enemy forces at point-blank range" in the town of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah [15]. Israel also announced a strike in Gaza targeting Mohammed Odeh, whom Defense Minister Israel Katz described as "one of the architects" of the October 7 attacks and the new commander of Hamas's military wing [15][20].
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said President Trump "knows he's getting a deal that undermines every war aim he espoused after 28 February" and called the injection of the Abraham Accords into the Iran talks "a typical Trump ploy" [8]. Multiple analysts assessed that no Arab or Muslim state would normalize with Israel under current conditions. Former assistant secretary of state Barbara A. Leaf said: "I do not expect any of the Arab/Muslim states whose leaders spoke to President Trump on May 23 to move towards normalisation with Israel right now" [16]. Chatham House expert Yossi Mekelberg described the push as "no more than a sweetener for Israel, and most likely won't happen" [16].
Russia's UN envoy Vassily Nebenzia framed the entire crisis as "unprovoked aggression by the two countries against Iran on a false pretext" and criticized a US-led draft Security Council resolution on the strait as one-sided. "I'm telling them: you are the hostages of the American policy in the Middle East," he said of Gulf states, adding that Russia was ready to accept Iranian enriched uranium as part of a deal [13].
Democratic Senator Cory Booker said Trump's approach had backfired, arguing the conflict had strengthened Tehran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and left the US in a "worse" position [19]. The US Senate has advanced a War Powers resolution challenging the administration's authority to continue military action, with critics arguing the 60-day statutory limit has been exceeded; the administration contends the ceasefire pauses the clock [35][36].
The humanitarian toll continues to mount. The World Food Programme's acting executive director, Carl Skau, said the conflict had compounded global food crises: "We take from the hungry to give to the starving. That's the reality" [20]. Iranian citizens described devastating effects from a near-total internet blackout, including loss of income, business closures, and disrupted healthcare [31][32]. The ICRC delivered 171 tonnes of emergency relief to the Iranian Red Crescent in its first cross-border shipment since hostilities escalated [33]. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said his country "is still enduring the most difficult circumstances, of war, destruction, and tragedies" [20].
Rubio said a peace agreement remained within reach despite the latest strikes [19]. Iran's vice-president, Mohammad Reza Aref, announced that "the first step toward free and regulated access to cyberspace has been taken," signaling a partial restoration of internet services [16]. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Qatar are expected to continue in the coming days [3][10].