US and Iranian negotiators have converged on a 60-day memorandum of understanding that would extend the current ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and launch formal talks on Iran's nuclear program, according to multiple US officials and media reports [10][15][20]. President Donald Trump has been briefed on the proposal but has not approved it, and Vice President JD Vance told reporters the two sides are "going back and forth on a couple of language points," including the question of uranium enrichment [2][7][19]. The conditional nature of the agreement — requiring presidential sign-off on the US side and disputed on the Iranian side — leaves its fate uncertain on day 91 of the conflict.
The reported framework would require Iran to remove all naval mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, commit to not pursuing nuclear weapons, and enter renewed negotiations on its enrichment program [10][14]. In return, the United States would gradually lift its naval blockade and discuss easing some sanctions on Iranian oil exports [1][20]. The Guardian reported that Trump has circulated a draft of the agreement among allies including Israel, with terms also covering the release of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets [7]. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined to confirm the deal's existence, stating, "It's always a mistake to get out ahead of the president and it is all going to be the president's decision" [2].
Whether a deal text actually exists is itself contested. Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said the text "has not yet been completed," and an Iranian official denied the Axios report that triggered global coverage [8][13]. The White House, meanwhile, called an Iranian-drafted 14-point version of the memorandum a "complete fabrication" [2]. The mutual denial of each other's drafts underscores deep distrust between the negotiating parties, a pattern noted by the BBC, Tagesschau, and Al Jazeera alike [2][13][15].
The Strait of Hormuz remains the sharpest point of friction. Trump has repeatedly declared the waterway "international waters" open to all and threatened to "blow up" Oman if it cooperated with Iran on transit fees: "But nobody's going to control it. Oman will behave like everybody else or we'll have to blow them up" [3][32]. Bessent reinforced the threat by warning of sanctions against any entity participating in a toll system [7][31]. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took the opposite position, issuing a statement that "seeking permission is mandatory and passage through other routes will be considered as disruption," and reporting that 26 ships transited Hormuz in 24 hours only after obtaining Iranian authorization [7][5]. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei called Trump's threats against Oman "dangerous" and "bullying" and a sign of "the normalization of lawlessness in international relations" [3].
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei framed the broader conflict as an existential struggle, telling officials that "the enemy's blind plan … is to create division and destruction in order to compensate for its military defeats" and bring Iran to its knees [3][7]. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov of what Tehran described as US ceasefire violations, including the naval blockade and the seizure of an Iranian container ship [35]. Lavrov urged Iran to preserve the truce in its originally agreed parameters [35].
Russia and China positioned themselves as defenders of Iranian sovereignty. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mariya Zakharova stated, "Zenginleştirilmiş uranyum, İran'a ait. Yalnızca Tahran, uranyumla ne yapılması gerektiği konusunda karar verebilir" (Enriched uranium belongs to Iran. Only Tehran can decide what to do with it) [18]. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning welcomed the ceasefire but attributed the Hormuz navigation crisis to "illegal US-Israel military action against Iran" and endorsed Pakistan's mediation efforts [34].
Markets responded swiftly to the prospect of de-escalation. Oil prices fell toward $94 per barrel and the S&P 500 reached a record high after the Axios report surfaced [5][36]. The rally reflected relief over the potential reopening of the strait, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply transits. The BBC separately reported that about half of India's crude imports move through Hormuz, meaning the conflict's continuation would raise crude, shipping, and insurance costs across South Asia [37]. African economies faced divergent effects: Kenya was described as vulnerable due to fuel imports, while Nigeria stood to benefit from elevated oil prices [38].
The ceasefire framework exists against a backdrop of continued military exchanges. US Central Command said its forces shot down five Iranian attack drones — a figure reported as four by a separate US official — and struck a ground control station in Bandar Abbas [9][12]. The IRGC said it targeted a US base in Kuwait in retaliation, warning that any repeat would draw a "more decisive response" [9][3]. Kuwait condemned what it called "Iranian aggressions" after intercepting a ballistic missile [1], and the United Arab Emirates stressed that any US-Iran agreement must guarantee freedom of navigation through the strait [33].
Parallel to the Iran track, Israel intensified operations on two fronts. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to expand control of Gaza to 70 percent of the territory, stating, "We are currently squeezing Hamas" [17][11]. Israeli forces struck more than 135 Hezbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon in 24 hours, killing at least 19 to 23 people, including a woman and two children in a strike south of Beirut [3][12][17]. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned the bombardment as collective punishment, and Culture Minister Ghassan Salamé warned that strikes were putting UNESCO heritage sites including the ruins of Tyre in "serious danger" [17][12].
A separate constitutional dispute is unfolding in Washington. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators the 60-day War Powers Resolution deadline is "paused" by the ceasefire, and Trump sent Congress a letter arguing hostilities have "ended" [27][28]. The statute contains no pause provision, a point raised by Democratic lawmakers and legal experts who described the administration's interpretation as an attempt to circumvent congressional authority [29].
Former US diplomats Aaron David Miller and Hala Rharrit criticized Trump's effort to link the Iran deal to an expanded Abraham Accords framework, calling it an "embarrassment" and a "misreading" of regional dynamics [22]. Israeli security experts assessed that Iran retains significant ballistic missile capability and has shifted to cluster munitions that are harder to intercept, leaving Trump in what Tel Aviv University's Meir Litvak described as a "self-built trap" between accepting terms that would be seen as humiliating and risking further escalation [23].
Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is traveling to Washington to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with the Iran conflict as the primary agenda item [1][6]. Rubio said a few more days would be needed to reach an agreement [5]. Whether Trump approves the memorandum — and whether Tehran accepts whatever version emerges — remains the central uncertainty.