Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave Belarus one week to remove relay equipment, radars, and air-defense systems deployed along its southern border that Kyiv says are used to guide Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian territory [2][12][13]. "I think a week will be enough for him to do it. If he doesn't do it, we will," Zelensky stated [2]. Ukrainian domestic reporting identified the equipment in the Homel and Brest regions [13], and the French international broadcaster RFI's Ukrainian service described the demand as a call for Minsk to stop providing technical assistance to Russian strikes [14]. A Spanish outlet reported that Zelensky threatened to destroy radars and air-defense systems on Belarusian soil if they were not withdrawn within seven days [17].
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko rejected the premise of the ultimatum. "We have said many times that it is absolutely unacceptable for the war between Ukraine and Russia to spill over into Belarusian territory," he stated [2]. Lukashenko initially issued a veiled counter-threat, saying Belarus has "one very serious target, with precise coordinates" [3], but subsequently walked back the remark and said no military action should be expected from Minsk [3]. BBC Turkish quoted a former Ukrainian presidential adviser identified as Arestovych as assessing the probability of Belarusian troops directly joining the war as very low [18].
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian-installed signal repeaters along the Belarus-Ukraine border ceased operations around June 22, shortly after Zelensky's ultimatum [8]. The Guardian reported that Ukraine had been constructing anti-tank trenches, dragon's teeth, and barbed wire along the Belarus border amid increased Russian reconnaissance drone activity from Belarusian territory [9]. The Rivne Regional State Administration announced that the region has an approved civilian evacuation plan in case of a possible invasion from Belarus [19].
Viktor Vasilyev, Chairman of the CSTO Permanent Council, stated: "We've been hearing the Kyiv regime's recent statements about Belarus. The situation on the border between Ukraine and Belarus is growing more tense" [2]. The Moscow Times reported that current and former Russian and European officials told the Wall Street Journal that Moscow has begun a pressure campaign to draw Belarus into the war or into operations against NATO neighbors [11]. Al Jazeera's Arabic-language analysis reported that Ukraine has identified hundreds of potential targets inside Belarus [16].
Two Western academics framed the ultimatum differently from Kyiv's self-defense rationale. Nicolai Petro, professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island, stated that the threat "may make sense in the context of his overall strategy of trying to provoke an escalation from Russia or Belarus that would necessitate NATO's direct military intervention" [3]. Alexander Hill, professor of military history at the University of Calgary, described the ultimatum as part of "attempts to widen the war and ultimately drag NATO into a more active role" [3]. Responsible Statecraft, the Quincy Institute's publication, situated the Belarus threat within a broader pattern that includes Ukrainian drone flights over Baltic NATO states [3].
NATO's eastern-flank governments framed the situation through the lens of collective defense. The Atlantic Council reported that a permanent Russian military presence in Belarus would enhance Moscow's ability to seal the Suwałki Gap, potentially cutting off the Baltic states [10]. Poland's Ministry of National Defence published a statement on NATO solidarity in the face of hybrid attacks from Belarus, including migration pressure and the deployment of offensive systems near NATO borders [20]. Lithuania's national broadcaster LRT reported that the Lithuanian military recorded an increase in hostile information campaigns after closing border checkpoints with Belarus [21]. Le Monde reported earlier on Belarusian road construction and artillery positions near the border, as well as Russian plans to install long-range drone control bases in Belarus [7]. France 24 analyzed the relay stations' strategic military function and the perception of Belarus as a Russian satellite [15].
Separately, Zelensky stated that Ukraine's broader operations, including those concerning Crimea, are "carefully calculated" and that "if Ukraine receives exactly what we discussed with our partners within the G7 — and this depends on the partners' decision — we will promptly create the conditions that will force Russia to choose peace" [5]. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for increased sanctions and military support, stating: "There are clear signs that as Russia loses ground and their economy struggles, the mood in Moscow is turning against Putin's war" [4].
The economic dimension of Ukraine's strategy was visible in the fuel sector. El País reported that systematic Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have reduced gasoline production by roughly 25 percent year-on-year and forced the Moscow refinery offline for at least six months [1]. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak described the fuel situation as difficult but manageable [1]. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the strikes change nothing and are incapable of influencing events at the front [1]. Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin proposed that all oil companies allocate at least 30 percent of their crude to domestic refining [1], and Russian airline Azimut warned that flights had lost all economic viability [1].
Analyst Andreas Umland of the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies stated that the most likely trajectory is "a gradual transition from a high-intensity war to a lower-intensity conflict," resembling the 2015–2021 Donbas contact-line period, with a partial ceasefire possible by year's end or next year due to Russia's domestic pressures [6]. Zelensky's ultimatum deadline is expected to expire around June 27; the ISW assessment noted that Russian signal repeaters along the border had already gone silent [8].