The United States and Iran have mutually paused military strikes for two consecutive nights after thirteen days of continuous bombing, with both sides citing progress in Omani-mediated talks on the Strait of Hormuz even as a tanker struck a mine in the strategic waterway [19][30]. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said President Donald Trump was "giving talks some space" and "a little bit of room" for diplomacy [30][29]. Iranian Army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia stated that Iran had halted its retaliatory operations because the US stopped its attacks, framing the pause as a direct consequence of Iran's reciprocal strategy [1][6].
The Trump administration described the pause as a deliberate strategic choice [9][17]. Waltz stated that Trump was keeping all options on the table while leaving room for negotiations [9][17]. White House Communications Director Steven Cheung said Trump has always prioritized a diplomatic solution but reserves all options if Iran continues what he called terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on US allies [11][25]. Trump said the US was "locked and loaded and ready to go, but we're talking to them" [9].
Reporting from multiple outlets attributes the pause to concerns over dwindling US munitions stockpiles [6][8]. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine and Vice President JD Vance raised concerns about depleting Patriot interceptor stockpiles at a White House meeting [6][8][9]. Admiral Bradley Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, told Trump the campaign had reached the limits of its effectiveness and that the US had nearly exhausted its list of targets [9][28]. A CSIS analysis estimated it will take at least three years to replenish Tomahawk, Patriot, and THAAD stockpiles [33]. Trump dismissed reports of munitions shortages, stating that US stockpiles exceed what is needed [2][10]. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth maintained the strikes achieved a historic victory that neutralized Iran's navy, air force, and defense industry [18].
Iranian sources offered competing explanations for the pause, with a senior Iranian official telling Reuters that Iran's position remains "attack for attack" and that the message had been conveyed to the US, while expressing skepticism that the US pause represents a genuine shift [4]. Akraminia described the situation as "chaotic and undesirable for America" and said Iran's army was using the ceasefire to rebuild and upgrade its air defense systems [32]. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected blame for the conflict and offered to broker talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, stating there is no military solution to the region's conflicts [6][8][26].
Independent military analysts contradicted the US victory narrative [18]. Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said Iran's military capability remains formidable and has recovered faster than predicted [18]. Andreas Krieg of King's College London said US bases are fixed, vulnerable, and within range of Iran's modern missile and drone arsenal, giving Iran an asymmetric cost advantage [18]. Jason Campbell, a former Department of Defense official, said Iran may be deploying advanced weapons not used earlier in the conflict and that US leadership exaggerated the degradation of Iran's capabilities [18]. Patrick Bury, a former NATO analyst at the University of Bath, said Iran's missiles and drones are cheaper to produce than the systems used to intercept them [18]. Kavanagh also argued that the war will continue because both sides desire things they cannot achieve through either a deal or on the battlefield [7].
Analysts and former officials framed the conflict as a domestic political liability for Trump [7]. The war has cost approximately $37.5 billion with 18 US soldiers killed, according to Hegseth's Senate testimony, with polling showing 33 percent public support [7]. Former US diplomat Brett Bruen said Iran knows Trump is vulnerable due to the economy, midterm elections, and low popularity, and will exploit that weakness to raise its demands [7]. US Senator Gary Peters told Hegseth he has failed and has no long-term plan to win the war [7]. The US House of Representatives passed a resolution demanding an end to military action against Iran [42].
Omani-mediated talks on the Strait of Hormuz have produced what Iranian officials describe as genuine, if incomplete, progress [31][35]. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said discussions with Oman focused on common principles and operational mechanisms for safe passage through the strait while respecting sovereign rights, describing the talks as useful and productive [31][20][35]. Baghaei cautioned that no actual change has yet occurred in maritime traffic through the strait [35][36]. Deputy Foreign Minister Said Hatibzade stated Iran is committed to diplomacy and the principle of peaceful passage but will not allow US dominance over the Persian Gulf [10]. Despite the talks, a tanker struck a mine in the strait during the pause [17][19].
Military operations linked to the conflict extend beyond the US-Iran bilateral track [5][16]. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said his forces attacked Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu with ballistic missiles and drones [15][16]. Ukraine's SBU security service confirmed a strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea transporting military cargo between Iran and Russia, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleging Russia is providing satellite imagery to Iran for targeting US and Gulf military installations [12][5]. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the Caspian Sea strike as "an act of aggression that could further inflame and expand the flames of war" [12]. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi warned that if the UK continues supporting the US military, it will become a "clear and legitimate target" [38].
Global energy markets responded to the pause with falling oil prices, with Brent briefly dropping below $90 [20]. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea and Hormuz transits rose from 1-3 percent to 7.5-10 percent of hull value [34]. Simone Krummaker, an insurance professor at Bayes Business School, said the increased rates materially change the economics of a voyage [34]. Iran disclosed $18 billion in wartime oil sales [32], while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China's purchases of Iranian crude have dropped by about 40 percent due to sanctions on Chinese refineries, and that the US has frozen $1.3 billion in cryptocurrency wallets linked to Iran's IRGC [39][25].
Diplomatic sources credited regional mediators with facilitating the pause [28][43]. Pakistan maintained communication with Tehran, Washington, Riyadh, and Beijing, while Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan discussed the negotiation process with Qatar's prime minister and Pakistan's army chief [28][43]. In Tehran, business owner Nader said "everyone in the country is stuck in limbo" and that Trump is "playing games with Iran" [4]. A Tehran resident told BBC Persian there are no sirens or warnings, only the sound of explosions [37]. Pope Leo XIV renewed his appeal for all parties to suspend attacks and urgently return to dialogue [17].
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, preparing to visit the White House, stated that Iran's nuclear program "has to come to an end" regardless of any diplomatic agreement reached with Washington [32]. Netanyahu warned that a resumption of attacks on Israel by Iran or its allies would be a "terrible mistake" [19].
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect, and the US and UK are discussing plans for a coalition to protect ships and de-mine the waterway [9][11]. An Omani delegation has arrived in Tehran for further talks [10][19]. Trump said he has not decided whether to return to an all-out operation [8].