Strait of Hormuz Standoff Drives Global Oil Supply Shortfall as IEA Cuts Forecast and Transit Falls to Record Low

Insists that the US has 'total control' over the Strait of Hormuz.

“total control”

Remains resolute, pledging to continue its resistance against the US and keep the strait closed until all its demands are met.

Claims the US has 'total control' over the Strait of Hormuz.

““We totally control the Strait of Hormuz. We have control over it; nobody else, only us,””

Declares the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened until the US changes its behavior and accepts Iran's conditions.

““As long as America does not change its behaviour and does not accept Iran’s conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened.””

Assesses that the conflict's trajectory depends on whether the escalatory rhetoric from both sides represents opening negotiating positions or actual red lines.

““If both sides are prepared to compromise, there is still a path towards ending the conflict and reopening the strait. If they are not, Hormuz could remain restricted, and the confrontation risks becoming another prolonged, open-ended conflict in the Middle East.””

States that Qatar has heard positive messages from Tehran and Muscat regarding the reopening of Hormuz.

Suggests he might let Iran fail economically or hit them 'really, really hard', describing them as 'very devious negotiators'.

““I’m sort of negotiating. They’re very devious negotiators.””

Insists the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the US ends the war and blockade, releases Iran's frozen assets, and agrees to a region-wide ceasefire.

““As long as the US does not change its behaviour and accept Iran’s conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened,””

States that Qatar has heard positive statements from Tehran and Muscat regarding the reopening of the strait.

““We have heard positive statements from both capitals in the recent couple of days. Our main priority here is the reopening of the strait, maintaining the ceasefire and making sure that we are able to push forward towards the negotiation.””

Analyzes that Iran is keeping the strait closed to increase pressure on the US and reestablish strategic deterrence to prevent future attacks.

““Even though they’ve [Iran] worked out a deal with Oman in terms of where ships would go entering and exiting the strait, they don’t want to to activate and implement that yet because they want to increase the pain on the United States who in their mind has attacked them twice in the last two years. What they’re trying to do is reestablish strategic deterrence to prevent future attacks.””

States that the overall shock is quite severe and expects the next few weeks to make things far worse once disruption and price factors pass through.

States that the hardest hit are net energy and food importers with fragile macroeconomic foundations and high poverty rates.

Warns that rising diesel costs will feed into everything from flour to fertilizer in the weeks ahead, and that Pakistan will harvest its wheat at the most expensive input cost in years.

Confirmed that his country has full control over the strait and warned Iran against taking any step there.

Claims the US has full control of the Strait of Hormuz, describes the US blockade as a 'wall of steel', and asserts that Iran's military is destroyed, its soldiers are unpaid, and its economy is collapsing with 300% inflation.

“«لا تملك أي شيء تفعله حيال الحصار البحري الأميركي»” ar

Confirms that oil pollution has affected a distance of more than one kilometer of the shoreline so far.

Called on the government to help citizens bear the burden of rising fuel prices.

“Leo tumeamka na bei mpya ya mafuta, bei tuliyoitegemea kufuatia mashambuliizi yanayoendelea ya Marekani na Israel dhidi ya Iran. Kama ilivyo sehemu zote duniani bei imepanda sana na gharama za maisha zitakuwa kubwa sana. Serikali isaidiane na wananchi kubeba gharama hizi.” sw

Warns that prolonged helium shortages will increase MRI costs because each machine requires 1,500 to 2,000 liters of helium for cooling magnets.

Warns that prolonged blockade risks hyperinflation and even famine in pessimistic scenarios.

Argues the blockade will worsen the economic crisis but will not necessarily lead to famine or complete economic collapse.

States that the blockade blocks Iran's import and export routes and alternative routes cannot meet Iran's needs due to limited capacity.

States that the hostilities demonstrate the magnitude of global economic interdependence and that the impact depends on each economy's international insertion and productive structure.

Said the USA has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the naval blockade a 'wall of steel' and declaring Iran powerless.

“the USA has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz”

Said American forces continued enforcing a maritime blockade against Iran, forcing 59 vessels to reroute, disabling three, and boarding two.

Said the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and will not be reopened unless the United States accepts the conditions proposed by Iran.

“The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and will not be reopened unless the United States accepts the conditions proposed by Iran”

Listed 19 alleged US actions against Iran and said the US has caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iranians over the past century.

Said the US should compensate Iran for more than seven decades of hostile actions, interference, and exploitation.

Described Trump's demand for compensation from Iran as 'a joke'.

“a joke”

Called for dialogue and negotiations to reach a comprehensive and lasting settlement to the conflict in the Gulf and the Red Sea.

Said Guterres is convinced a comprehensive and durable settlement can only be reached through dialogue and negotiations.

“The secretary-general remains convinced that a comprehensive and durable settlement can only be reached through dialogue and negotiations.”

Said what really shakes the market are surprises and the Hormuz closure was a shock.

“What really shakes the market are surprises… and the Hormuz closure was a shock”

Said the current supply shock is 'the biggest disruption in history' and that the market believes the crisis can and will end soon.

“the biggest disruption in history”

Announced member governments would release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest emergency stock release in history.

Says salary delays affect him a lot, forcing him to reduce expenses and keep money aside for emergencies, causing anxiety and fear.

“The delay affects you a lot. Like most people, we have financial obligations as well as basic living expenses. We're just more and more convinced that we need to reduce expenses and keep some money aside for emergencies — just until things return to normal. It makes you really anxious and fearful.”

Says salaries were delayed by more than 10 days and the future looks uncertain.

“This month, our salaries were delayed by more than 10 days. The Minister of Health explained the state doesn't have sufficient cash flow and that's why there was a delay. But we just don't know how long the next delay will be.”

Noted that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to normal anytime soon, with traffic levels expected to fluctuate and remain below pre-conflict norms until at least 2028.

“Until at least 2028, traffic levels are expected to fluctuate as tensions ebb and flow, while on average remaining well below pre-conflict norms”

Argued that the entirety of the Iraqi economy is now hostage to oil revenues.

“The entirety of the Iraqi economy is now hostage to… oil revenues.”

Said salary delays are likely to produce sectoral protests initially, but if combined with electricity shortages, inflation, and deteriorating services, separate protests could connect and pose a serious test to Iraq's stability.

“If salary delays continue, I would expect more protests, but initially they are likely to remain sectoral rather than develop into another nationwide movement like Tishreen. The government has learned from 2019 and now has a range of political, administrative and security mechanisms to contain protests before they broaden.”

Said he asked Iranian officials for special dispensation allowing Iraqi oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz during his visit to Iran in late July.

Describes the anxiety and financial strain caused by delayed salary payments, forcing him to reduce expenses and save for emergencies.

““The delay affects you a lot. Like most people, we have financial obligations as well as basic living expenses. We're just more and more convinced that we need to reduce expenses and keep some money aside for emergencies — just until things return to normal. It makes you really anxious and fearful.””

Expresses uncertainty about the future due to salary delays of more than 10 days, noting the health minister attributed it to insufficient state cash flow.

““The future looks more uncertain. This month, our salaries were delayed by more than 10 days. The Minister of Health explained the state doesn't have sufficient cash flow and that's why there was a delay. But we just don't know how long the next delay will be.””

Predicts that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to normal until at least 2028, with levels remaining well below pre-conflict norms.

““Until at least 2028, traffic levels are expected to fluctuate as tensions ebb and flow, while on average remaining well below pre-conflict norms,””

Argues that the crisis transcends the oil sector and that the entirety of the Iraqi economy is now hostage to oil revenues.

““The entirety of the Iraqi economy is now hostage to… oil revenues.””

Predicts that salary delays will likely cause sectoral protests rather than a nationwide movement, but warns that a combination of problems could connect separate protests and test Iraq's stability.

““If salary delays continue, I would expect more protests, but initially they are likely to remain sectoral rather than develop into another nationwide movement like Tishreen. The government has learned from 2019 and now has a range of political, administrative and security mechanisms to contain protests before they broaden.””

Claims the US Navy has 'mine swept the entire strait' and controls the Strait of Hormuz.

““We've mine swept the entire strait,””

Estimates that new pipelines to bypass Hormuz would cost billions of dollars and take years to build, and cannot solve the oil market's immediate problem.

““The bottom line is that these projects cannot solve the oil market's immediate problem,””

Argues the region needs alternative oil and gas pipeline routes through the Arabian Peninsula to Israel's Mediterranean ports to bypass the chokepoints of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

““alternative routes instead of going through the chokepoints of the Hormuz Strait and the Bab-al-Mandab Strait in order to have the flow of oil.””

Warns that alternative pipelines are themselves vulnerable to attack, that Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have no easy escape from Hormuz dependency, and that Iran risks a broader international coalition if it keeps the strait closed for too long.

““If Iran keeps Hormuz closed for too long, the assumption that the disruption is temporary could disappear and a much broader international coalition could form against Tehran. Iran's objective is to prevent such a coalition from taking shape,””

Estimates that lost liquid hydrocarbon production in Gulf states is about 13.5 million bpd, and that Russia's oil export growth potential is limited in the medium term but higher prices will boost budget revenues.

States that if Urals prices stay above $70/barrel, the Russian budget could gain about 1 trillion rubles, and if the war continues and oil exceeds $100/barrel, the gain could reach 3 trillion rubles.

Warns that global oil supply has fallen well below demand due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, the U.S. blockade of Iranian exports, and attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Introduced a clause terminating insurance cover for vessels that pay transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz.

Said the US will ask Iran for money for damage done over a 50-year period and described Iranians as 'devious negotiators'.

“We're going to ask for money for the damage they've done over a 50-year period”

Said the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened as long as America does not change its behavior and does not accept Iran's conditions, including ending the war and paying Iran's frozen assets.

“As long as America does not change its behavior and does not accept Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened”

Said the punishment of the aggressor continues and the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until Iran's conditions are met.

“the punishment of the aggressor continues, and the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until Iran's conditions are met”

Said signals in the last two to three days suggest the two sides are close to some sort of arrangement.

“The signals in the last two, three days are that we are close to some sort of an arrangement”

Said four crew members were killed in a suspected Houthi attack on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Declared the US has total control over the Strait of Hormuz and will keep it, calling the naval blockade a 'wall of steel'.

“The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT! Our Naval Blockade is being called, by everyone, 'A WALL OF STEEL,' and there is nothing Iran can do about it.”

Claims the US has 'total control' over the Strait of Hormuz and states he does not trust Iran.

““We totally control the Strait of Hormuz. We have control over it; nobody else, only us. Our navy is unbelievable, and things going great for our country.””

Demanded compensation from Iran for damage caused over the past 50 years, including for the families of 17 US sailors killed in the USS Cole attack and for Iranian protesters killed in January.

Said he believes a deal with Iran is possible and that Iran has informed the US it has no plan to impose tolls on ships in the strait.

Announced six new conditions for reopening the strait, including an end to US threats, withdrawal of US forces, lifting of sanctions, and compensation for two 'imposed wars'.

Said discussions with Oman on a new maritime transit system for the strait have reached a 'final stage' and that Iran has no direct talks with the US.

Said both sides appear to be putting forward maximum demands before serious talks begin, and Trump's new demands are particularly problematic because they go beyond ending the current conflict.

Said the outcome of the standoff depends on which side can withstand pressure longer, noting the US is also suffering from rising fuel prices and inflation.

Argues that the US naval blockade has devastated Iran's economy, causing extreme inflation and poverty, which in turn makes the regime more repressive and strengthens the Revolutionary Guards' role in governance.

“«Plus le régime s’appauvrit, plus il devient sanglant et répressif»” fr

Told Iran's president that free and safe navigation without additional fees is important and urged Iran to work with the international community.

Responded that Iran is trying to resolve the issue through dialogue with Saudi Arabia.

Analyzes that combined UAE supplies and stockpile releases can sustain the economy for an additional 22-25 days, and that strong demand management could extend supply through April.