Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared on 6 September that the era of proportionate responses to US attacks has ended, warning that any further aggression against Iran's interests would draw "a faster, heavier, and more painful response" [2][3][5][6]. The announcement followed a weekend exchange of strikes in which US Central Command said Iran fired ballistic missiles at two American warships, prompting US forces to disable two Iranian tankers and destroy a third, with sources reporting strikes in the Gulf of Oman [3] and off Kharg Island [6]. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei announced on Iranian state television that Iran will declare a restricted maritime zone outside the Strait of Hormuz, beginning at the US Navy's blockade line and extending into parts of the Persian Gulf, with any ship entering the zone placed on Iran's sanctions list [1][4][9][10]. Rezaei said the US claim that ships are freely transiting the strait is "a lie" and that Iran has so far avoided sinking ships for environmental reasons [5].
US officials rejected the Iranian posture and insisted the strait remains open. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said transits through the strait are averaging over 9 million barrels of oil per day and that, with bypass pipelines, total flows are probably two-thirds or more of pre-conflict levels, adding that "the United States Navy is winning that battle" [2][3][6][10]. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that "if Iran shoots at US ships, we will destroy (and sink) their oil tankers" [2][5]. Centcom spokesperson Tim Hawkins rejected Iranian state-media claims as "a total lie" [2][3][10]; sources differ on whether Tehran claimed to have struck a US drone [2][3] or a US vessel [10]. President Donald Trump said the renewed fighting will not last "too long" and declared the strait open, while Vice President JD Vance said he "wouldn't call it a war" [2][3]. UKMTO reported that 59 ships passed through the strait in the previous 48 hours [10].
Commercial shipping data and insurance-market assessments describe an operational reality at odds with both governments' assurances. Kpler and LSEG data show shipping through the strait at its lowest level since May, with an average of ten cargo ships per day over the past ten days, only two crossings on Saturday and six on Sunday, and no supertankers exiting since Wednesday [4][9][10][13]. War-risk insurance premiums for Hormuz transits have swung to 3–10 percent of vessel value, adding approximately $7–8 per barrel of oil, with about $2 billion in claims arising from more than 70 cases [15][17]. Charter rates for tankers have jumped from $20,000 to over $300,000 a day, and tanker owners are rerouting or halting Gulf voyages [16]. A Saudi-flagged tanker operated by Bahri, the Seadra, suffered a security incident while transiting Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors [27][18].
Iranian diplomatic voices frame the conflict as an illegal war launched by the United States and Israel on 28 February. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei stated that the strait was fully open until the attack and that Washington started an "illegal and brutal war" and is now making the world pay for it while portraying Iran as responsible [7][5]. Baghaei said the US economic war is directed "contra todo el comercio mundial y los países del mundo" (against all world commerce and all the world's countries) [5]. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran and Oman have agreed a provisional shipping corridor through the strait, with entry and part of the exit route passing through Iranian territorial waters, while a permanent route is negotiated over 30 to 60 days [5][10][18]. The IRGC objected to the Oman-backed corridor, declaring that the only authorised route is the one announced by Iran and warning that vessels crossing without permission would be "unacceptable and extremely dangerous" [10].
Hebrew-language reporting in Israel framed Iran's closure of the strait as a deliberate "doomsday weapon" of the regime, emphasising stranded tankers, energy price increases and the expected effect on US internal politics and the mid-term elections [19].
Energy-importing nations described the disruption as a threat to fuel supply and economies. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mohammed Al-Ansari told US media that reopening the strait is a priority and that the world faces an "industrial catastrophe" if the crisis continues [13]. African governments imposed rationing, subsidy adjustments and emergency measures, with Kenya's Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi meeting importers to establish an emergency fuel plan, Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu ordering deployment of about 100,000 gas-conversion kits, and Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urging citizens to use fuel carefully [23][24]. South Korea, which depends on the strait for 61 percent of its crude oil and 54 percent of its naphtha, is discussing options including a maritime patrol aircraft, a logistics ship and a minesweeping unit, while Iran warned Seoul that any military participation would amount to "دعما مباشرا لمرتكبي العدوان" (direct support for the perpetrators of aggression) [8][11]. Turkey's Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said 15 Turkish-owned ships are waiting near Hormuz [20].
Analysts and officials in major economies argued that diversification, strategic reserves and bypass pipelines cushion the impact. India's Joint Secretary for Petroleum and Natural Gas Sujata Sharma said about 70 percent of India's crude imports now come through non-Hormuz routes [21]. Columbia University researcher Erica Downs said the full impact of the strait disruption will reach China only in April and that China's strategic and commercial reserves could sustain a complete cut-off for up to six months [22]. Brazil benefits from a Brent-price rise because its net crude export exposure dominates imports, according to BTG Pactual economist Iana Ferrão [25]. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that new pipelines could make the strait a worthless piece of water within two years [17]. Neil Atkinson of the National Center for Energy Analytics said the diversification is real but Bessent's two-year timetable is far-fetched and new pipelines would take years and remain vulnerable to attack [17]. Russian International Affairs Council analyst Nikolai Sukhov described a "Hormuz paradox" in which Iran's blockade demonstrates the strait's strategic value even as the resulting crisis creates incentives for consumer adaptations that will erode Iran's coercive leverage [26]. Stephen Zunes of the University of San Francisco doubted Iran can militarily enforce the restricted zone, suggesting the announcement may be a warning or an attempt to provoke a broader US response [10].
Iranian economic officials said the decisive battle is now domestic. Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said "the responsibility of reforming Iran's economy is with its government and people, not with the U.S. Treasury" [6]. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said Kharg Island has been hit around 550 times but continues to operate [6]. The Iranian government raised fuel prices for large consumers, with the third tier of the quota system doubling to 10,000 toman on 8 September [4].
Editorial and legislative voices pushed for an end to the conflict. Dawn's editorial recalled the 1 September strike on a wedding party in Kuhestak that killed at least five people including children, and the Minab school attack that killed more than 150, arguing that the US has no winning strategy and urging a return to the Islamabad memorandum framework [12]. The US House of Representatives approved a bipartisan war-powers resolution halting military action against Iran, a rebuke to President Trump that Speaker Mike Johnson tried to prevent [14].
OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October, completing the unwinding of 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts and pausing further increases, as the Pentagon expects the war to continue into next year [28].