President Donald Trump stated publicly that the US-Iran war will end "immediately after" the November midterm elections, arguing that Iran "can't hold out any longer" and is "desperate to try and affect the election" [2][3][5]. The remarks, made en route to the Republican midterm convention in Dallas and in subsequent interviews, sharpen Trump's public timeline for ending the six-month conflict by tying it to a specific electoral date [4][7][10]. Trump predicted gasoline prices would fall sharply after the vote, possibly below $2 a gallon [7]. The war began in early 2026 and was initially described by the administration as a "short-term excursion" that could be over in four to five weeks [2].
Trump told Fox he has no regrets about launching the war and would make the same decisions again, though he conceded he sometimes asks himself questions about it [1]. The administration defends the campaign as necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, a justification echoed by supporters at the Dallas convention [3][19]. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a deterrence policy under which Iran will lose a tanker every time it attacks or attempts to attack US naval ships [9][11]. John Russell, a 55-year-old convention attendee from Illinois, called the rise in gas prices a small bump and said "we can't allow [Iran] to have a nuclear bomb" [19].
A Wall Street Journal report, relayed by multiple outlets, states that Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and other senior advisers privately warned Trump in the Oval Office and Situation Room that Tehran could continue resisting US pressure potentially through January 2029 [5][13][18][20]. The private assessment directly contradicts Trump's public prediction of a post-midterm resolution [20]. Trump acknowledged that diplomatic talks with Tehran remain possible but are not preferred [18][20].
Iranian government and Islamic Revolution Guard Corps voices project resilience rather than collapse. The IRGC stated it targeted 10 vessels attempting to cross a prohibited zone in the Strait of Hormuz after the US destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, and fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan; US Central Command denied that its warships were hit [3][6][9][11]. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi issued conditions for ending the war, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon and the release of approximately $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets [6]. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated: "We don't trust the United States, and we will not take further steps unless they engage in trust-building measures" [6]. The IRGC threatened to hit 20 targets for every two or three enemy strikes and to release maps of an enlarged off-limits zone extending to Chabahar [9][11].
Regional analysts argue Iran is deliberately prolonging the war to wound Trump politically. Thomas Juneau of the University of Ottawa stated that "Iran perceives that it is winning the war and that the US is losing" [6]. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said "Iran has prepared for a long war" and is seeking "negative leverage" over the world economy through pressure on Hormuz [6][17]. Ali Alfoneh of the Arab Gulf States Institute said Iran cannot defeat the US militarily but hopes to weaken Trump politically by keeping gasoline prices high and contributing to a Republican defeat in the midterms [6]. SOAS lecturer Ali Alavi described Trump's capitulation claims as a message aimed at a domestic audience [17].
Trump's approval has fallen from the high-40s in January 2025 to the low-to-mid 30s, and petrol has climbed to a national average of $4.27 a gallon ahead of the November 3 midterms [17]. A Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests only a quarter of Americans think the war is worthwhile [19]. Carter Eisinger, a 27-year-old electrician from Fargo, said he does not see how a war in Iran helps the United States or connects to Trump's "America First" vision [19]. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has called for Trump to end the war [17]. H.A. Hellyer of the Center for American Progress said turnout and pump prices may decide the election [17].
Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, reaching approximately $107 in spot trading, after Iran-aligned Houthis seized the Red Sea port of Mocha, with US diesel near a record $6 a gallon [8][12]. Goldman Sachs estimated in a report that oil could exceed $120 a barrel [8]. Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti stated that Hormuz flows have fallen as low as 2 million barrels per day, down from 8 to 9 million bpd before fighting resumed on August 30 [11]. The US Energy Information Administration assessed regional production shut-ins averaging 5.5 mb/d in July, with Hormuz liquids flows at 4.9 mb/d in the second quarter of 2026 against 21.6 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 [22]. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that more than 17 million barrels transited Hormuz by ship on a recent Monday, the highest since the war began, a figure that appears to conflict with analyst estimates of sharply reduced flows [22]. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated that global energy importers spent an additional $330 billion between March and August 2026 [32]. Emirates National Oil Company director Paul Bradshaw said cargo insurance now represents 5 to 6 percent of cargo value, adding around $10 million per shipment, with war-risk premiums reaching up to 10 percent [21].
Gulf states describe a shift away from reliance on US security guarantees. Ahmed Sayyed Ahmed of Cairo's Al-Ahram institute said American bases meant to protect Gulf states from Iranian attacks became a strategic liability, with Gulf states asked to shield the bases by intercepting Iranian drones and missiles [16]. Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al Ansari stated: "Eigenständigkeit beim Thema Sicherheit ist der einzige Weg" (Self-reliance on security matters is the only way forward) [16]. Emirati adviser Anwar Gargash said strategic autonomy matters because fully relying on others means their defense of the Gulf cannot be assumed to be their priority [16]. Saudi Arabia established the Mecca Defence Pact with Turkey and Pakistan, an alliance assuring mutual military assistance [16].
One seafarer was killed aboard the oil products tanker Hercules Star at anchorage off Dubai, with another crew member missing [9][11]. The International Maritime Organization recorded 17 seafarer deaths in 56 attacks, with approximately 20,000 seafarers stranded when the war began [26]. Ankit Goyal, chief officer of the cargo vessel Manali, described being stranded for a month in the strike zone, witnessing 17 ships destroyed [26]. In Iran, citizens describe severe economic hardship after six months of war and naval blockade, with fuel prices doubled and everyday goods unaffordable [29]. Kian Habibian of the We Are Iranian Student association argued sanctions should target Revolutionary Guards investments rather than punish the population [14]. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that simultaneous pressure on Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea is driving food and fuel costs and threatening famine, with Sudan, Yemen, Gaza, and Lebanon most exposed [23][24].
Iraqi oil output fell approximately 60 percent to 1.7-1.8 mb/d because too few tankers could lift crude, and the Finance Ministry is preparing emergency borrowing plans [27][28]. TotalEnergies and Eni evacuated foreign staff from Basra projects [28]. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry proposed a scheme to spread the cost of procuring crude without transiting Hormuz across the oil import industry [31]. India deployed its navy under Operation Sankalp to escort Indian crude, LNG, and LPG vessels through the Gulf [34]. African states including Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Cape Verde are rationing fuel or freezing prices as shortages bite [35].
China accelerated anti-ship missile deliveries and temporarily granted Iran use of a military satellite, while Russia transferred air-defense systems ahead of schedule and supplied drone and missile components after the July escalation [33]. Iran is seeking broader institutional membership in BRICS, while the UAE imposed an indefinite trade embargo on Iran and left OPEC effective May 2026 [15][22]. Trump threatened an additional 10 percent tariff on countries aligning with BRICS, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued "Operation Economic Outcast," a sanctions plan targeting Iran and its trading partners [15].
The Houthi movement seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha and escalated attacks on Saudi cities, wounding at least 73 people across four southern cities [5][8]. Jordan's air defences intercepted 18 of 20 Iranian missiles fired at a US base on its territory [9][11]. UN Secretary-General Guterres appealed to all sides to "exercise utmost restraint" [9][18].