A commercial tanker was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, injuring two crew members, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it shot down a US MQ-1 drone over the strait using a new air-defense system [18][25]. The incidents came as the IRGC warned it is prepared for a prolonged war with the United States and would retaliate with new weapons against targets not yet struck if attacked again [6][11][13]. Crude oil slid to a one-week low, with Brent at $102.05 and WTI at $98.50, as traders priced in the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp this week [14].
IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Husein Mohebi said the war with the US is "not over" and that Iran has "long been prepared for a prolonged war," warning that another attack would change the geography of the conflict and bring out new weapons [6][11]. The IRGC stated that "all US bases and interests in the region will become targets of continuous, effective and painful attacks without any limitations or considerations" if the US strikes again [5]. Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said it has information that the US is preparing to restart direct attacks and that countries hosting US assets would be considered complicit [13]. Army commander Major General Amir Hatami marked Sacred Defense Week by warning that any threat to Iran's security would meet "رد حازم يندم عليه المعتدي" (a firm response the aggressor will regret) [1].
Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf stated in a parliamentary address that Iran is not interested in waging a forever war with the US [5]. Iran conveyed conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz through mediators — an end to the war on all fronts, release of frozen funds, and an end to the naval blockade — and said the strait would not reopen until US commitments are honoured [12]. Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei listed the same conditions and warned that US ships must withdraw from the Indian Ocean or be subject to attack, citing Iranian improvements to hypersonic missile speed, air defences and electronic warfare [12].
President Donald Trump said he is in "deciding mode" on Iran, listing his options as "wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically or making a deal" [5][10]. The US Treasury Secretary announced "Operation Economic Outcast" to "asphyxiate" Iranians, and the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control designated BitBank, a digital assets venture controlled by Iranian financier Babak Zanjani [13]. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel is "determined to complete the mission of toppling the regime" and that "its end is near" [17]. Netanyahu cut short his US visit and returned to Israel [10]. Iraq's army chief of staff Lieutenant General Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah met US chargé d'affaires Ambassador Steven Fagin in Baghdad to discuss military cooperation [2].
The UK Maritime Trade Operations office recorded a tanker struck by a projectile with two lightly injured crew [18]. The Panama-flagged tanker EL GAIA was attacked with an engine-room fire, an Omani warship rescuing 23 crew with two missing [25]. The IRGC claimed the tanker caught fire after striking naval mines, while US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the ship was hit by an Iranian missile and later attacked by an Iranian drone [25]. India summoned Iran's deputy chief of mission after missile strikes on two tankers killed an Indian sailor and injured eight, with the UAE Defense Ministry attributing the strikes to Iranian cruise missiles [28]. China's Foreign Ministry expressed concern over ships and crew trapped by the conflict [24].
Kpler data showed only 14 vessels crossing Hormuz over the weekend versus 36 a week earlier [18]. Der Spiegel reported traffic through the strait had all but collapsed, with only a dozen commodity freighters passing on Monday against roughly 125 large commercial ships daily before the war began on 28 February [4]. JPMorgan analysts said Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong despite the disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, with Saudi deliveries through Hormuz averaging 2.9 million bpd over the past six days versus 700,000 bpd in August [4][14]. KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer said "a degree of risk premium is being removed from oil prices on hopes that a diplomatic path to de-escalate the US-Iran war may arrive this week" [14]. CENTCOM spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins stated that "multiple routes remain free and open for commercial transit" [15], while Windward analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann assessed that crude exports through Hormuz are "scaling and it's scaling quickly" [15]. JPMorgan analysts separately said they "simply don't know how to model the endgame" to the oil market crisis [12].
Japan's three major shippers — Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), NYK and K Line — halted Hormuz transits [22]. South Korean refiner SK Energy bought 4 million barrels of US WTI for December delivery at roughly $24 per barrel above the November ICE Brent swap price [23]. Insurers could face $1.5-2 billion in Gulf conflict claims across roughly 70 casualties [16]. Iran's oil exports dropped to about 255,000 b/d loaded in August, 85% below the February-April average, while US household energy costs reached roughly $100 billion [19]. Kenya lost $7.7 million with about 600 ships stuck, Somalia's fuel prices rose 77% in 72 hours, and Nigeria and Mali implemented rationing measures [27]. Turkey positioned itself as an alternative energy corridor, with Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar highlighting the Kirkuk-Ceyhan line's 1.5 million b/d capacity [21]. Economist Kubatbek Rakhimov argued the war is aimed at controlling Hormuz and destroying alternative Eurasian corridors, with INSTC traffic falling from 14 to 3-5 million tons per year [26].
Qatar is pushing to revive US-Iran negotiations, with Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani saying the war has had an earthquake-like impact on the Middle East economy and calling for a regional framework in which no state is kept in permanent insecurity [8]. Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said mediation efforts continue to resume Tehran-Washington talks [8]. A planned Salalah meeting of Iran, GCC states and Iraq on Hormuz transit routes faced US reservations and the risk of simultaneous Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb crises [20]. Pakistan's UN ambassador Asim Iftikhar Ahmad said Islamabad will stress its mediatory role during the UN General Assembly high-level week [10]. Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesman said the Makkah joint defence pact with Saudi Arabia is defensive in nature and no military plan is under discussion [3].
Houthi political bureau member Hizam al-Assad said attacks on Riyadh are a response to "hundreds of airstrikes that Riyadh had carried out against the people of Yemen" [5]. Houthi leaders warned Saudi Arabia that continued attacks and blockade could lead to strikes on energy infrastructure deep inside the kingdom [7]. Iraqi militias carried out a drone strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing it to close [3]. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke twice with Trump requesting direct US military help, a request Trump spurned [3][5]. Saudi Arabia stated it intercepted Houthi missiles targeting Riyadh, though photographs showed smoke pouring from the Aramco facility [5].
Bloomberg-compiled figures show the US maritime blockade of Iran has cost more than $2 billion in operating costs, with about 20 ships — more than 30% of the US Navy — mobilized at roughly $32 million per day [9]. United States Congress figures indicate the war has already cost $38 billion and could add $2-3 billion monthly [9]. CENTCOM estimates the war has cost over $43 billion [3]. The US State Department warned Americans in the Middle East of a security environment with "the potential for unforeseen escalation" [10].
The UN General Assembly high-level week opens as Qatar and Pakistan pursue mediation channels and Iran's conditions for reopening Hormuz remain unmet [8][10][12]. Oil traders are pricing in diplomacy while Iran's military leadership asserts readiness for prolonged conflict, and the attribution of the tanker strike remains contested, with the IRGC blaming naval mines and CENTCOM citing an Iranian missile and drone [18][25].