President Donald Trump announced on social media that the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, describing ongoing discussions with Tehran as productive while insisting the naval blockade remains in force [3][4][8]. "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd," Trump wrote, adding that Iran is "in very bad condition, both economically and militarily" [3][5]. The statement came after reports from The Atlantic and Axios that the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare strike options against Iranian targets, with the New York Times reporting options that included three-day campaigns against energy, drone, and missile facilities [1][8][10]. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran could reply within days to Washington's response on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stating that "the diplomatic process is still continuing" [5].
The announcement followed a 5 percent jump in Brent crude to $105.3 per barrel, driven by Middle East tensions and a hurricane threat in the Gulf of Mexico, where Shell and Chevron shut down production [13]. Russian outlet Vzglyad reported Brent December futures rising nearly 5 percent to $105.15, the first time above $105 since September 17 [33]. The effective closure of Hormuz has cut daily transits from 94 to about 7 vessels, pushing India's crude basket to approximately $121 per barrel while Brent traded near $107 [32], though CENTCOM rejects Iranian claims that the strait is closed [5]. Kpler analysts reported crude crossing the strait fell 27 percent from a wartime high to at least 10.1 million barrels per day [5], with detectable transits at their lowest level in more than two months [21]. VLCC freight now makes up roughly a fifth of a crude cargo's cost, pushing Japan's US Gulf Coast voyages to $26–28 per barrel [19]. German economists warned that sustained prices above $100 would have lasting effects on inflation, with the ECB potentially forced to raise rates earlier and more aggressively than planned [29].
Republican candidates and voters have identified the war and fuel prices as the main drag on campaigns ahead of the midterms. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican Senate candidate, was recorded saying "It's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel" when describing his campaign troubles [6]. An 83-year-old Ohio retiree named Eddie St. John said "Artık hiçbir şeyi karşılayamıyorsunuz. Her şey çok pahalı" (You can't afford anything anymore. Everything is too expensive), while retired police officer Troy Flohr said he was fed up with Trump's assertions that the Iran war would soon end [17]. Trump's approval rating stood at a career-low 32 percent, with early voting in Ohio showing Democratic turnout outpacing Republicans even in a Republican-leaning county [17]. At a rally in San Antonio, Trump defended the conflict, repeating his false claim that the war was necessary to stop Iran from destroying Los Angeles or San Diego and saying "I am ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon" [6]. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth welcomed the USS Abraham Lincoln's crew back after a record deployment, praising their "constant combat operations" against Iran [6].
Iranian officials rejected core US demands while signaling openness to continued diplomacy. Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, said uranium enrichment is "an inseparable part" of the nuclear process and that Iran will not abandon enrichment or hand over its stockpiles [5]. IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi said forces are ready "with crushing weapons to deliver a decisive response to any attempt at unauthorised passage in the Strait of Hormuz" [5]. Inside Iran, the war and naval blockade have driven non-oil trade down approximately 25 percent, with oil exports dropping to roughly 255,000 barrels per day from nearly 2 million [27]. Iranian citizens described cutting essentials as purchasing power collapsed, with a retired teacher named Ladan saying "the country is falling apart" and a ride-hailing driver named Mahmoud reporting almost no customers for forty days after the war began [28].
Gulf and Arab governments condemned Iranian attacks on commercial shipping as violations of international law. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the targeting of two ADNOC tankers transiting Hormuz "acts of piracy" and a direct threat to global energy security, invoking UN Security Council Resolution 2817 [23]. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt, and Jordan issued similar condemnations, with Kuwait demanding the unconditional reopening of the strait [23][24]. The Gulf Cooperation Council's Secretary General Jasim Mohamed Al-Budaiwi rejected any attempt to turn Hormuz into "a tool of pressure and threat" [23]. A chemical tanker was struck by multiple projectiles 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, with crew casualties, and at least 12 tankers were attacked between September 28 and October 5 [20]. South Korea's government found that two unidentified aerial vehicles struck the stern of HMM's Namuho in Hormuz about one minute apart, and summoned the Iranian ambassador [31]. French President Emmanuel Macron announced a "purely defensive" naval escort mission to progressively reopen the strait [30].
US legislators challenged the legal basis of the war. Representative Ro Khanna condemned renewed strikes as "a blatant violation of the congressional resolution" and threatened to take Trump to court, while Senator Chuck Schumer said Trump delivered "maximum confusion, maximum chaos, maximum cost to the American people" [22]. Constitutional expert Bruce Fein said Congress could end the war by terminating funding, though courts would likely refrain from intervening [22]. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning condemned the US-Israel strikes as a violation of international law without Security Council authorization and urged an immediate halt to military action [25].
The regional conflict extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi forces claimed responsibility for strikes on Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, while denying strikes on Mecca and Medina [18]. Lufthansa cancelled all flights to Riyadh until October 16 [18]. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey's agreement with Saudi Arabia is defensive, stating "Turkey will not send troops to another country to carry out attacks on its territory" [18]. Pakistan denied a New York Times report that Pakistani warplanes were striking Houthi targets, saying it was only providing defensive support to Saudi Arabia [18]. Israeli officials assessed that a pre-election attack on Iran is unlikely but that the odds rise after the midterms [14][16].
The Pentagon has ordered CENTCOM to complete preparations for renewed large-scale military operations against Iran, with three aircraft carriers due in the Middle East, though no date for strikes has been set [10][14][16]. The Wall Street Journal reported that a third US aircraft-carrier strike group will arrive in the region by late November [4]. Iran's response to the US proposal on reopening Hormuz could come within days, according to Araghchi [5].