A Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential runoff, with the PL candidate at 52% to the president's 48% [5]. A separate PoderData survey put Bolsonaro at 53% to Lula's 47%, a three-point swing from a pre-first-round tie [2]. The polling shift follows Bolsonaro's first-round lead of 47.03% to 45.16% and coincides with formal endorsements from third-place finisher Augusto Cury — who cautioned that his support is "not a blank check" — and the União Progressista federation, as well as the backing of 14 newly elected governors including Sérgio Moro of Paraná and Douglas Ruas of Rio de Janeiro [1][5][9]. Colombian analyst Mauricio Vargas treated the runoff as a technical tie with momentum favoring Bolsonaro, and a Lula defeat as the possible end of South America's "pink tide," citing Datafolha data showing 39% of Cury's voters and 44% of Ronaldo Caiado's voters leaning Bolsonaro [4].

Lula's coalition filed a representation with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) seeking to suspend a cryptocurrency platform called Brasil 22 Token that rewards users for posting pro-Flávio Bolsonaro content [16]. PSOL deputies Ediane Maria and Natália Boulos separately filed a crime notice with the Electoral Prosecutor's Office requesting investigation, transaction tracing and page removal [17]. Minister Guilherme Boulos called the scheme "COMPRA DE VOTOS ABERTA!" (open vote buying) and tagged the TSE on social media [18]. Electoral lawyer Eduardo San'Anna said that if a link between the site and the Flávio campaign is proven, it could result in ineligibility [18].

The platform states it has no official link to candidates, parties or campaigns [16][17], while its creator, Kevim Flores, was quoted saying the project would get people who voted for Lula — number 13 — to share B22 on their social networks [16]. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign denied authorship of the site and any relation to crypto sales, and said its legal team would seek to take the site down through electoral, civil and criminal proceedings [16][18].

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to use the enlarged right-wing Congress — where his PL party holds 28 of 81 Senate seats and 121 Chamber seats — to pursue constitutional amendments on judicial and tax reform, lower the age of criminal responsibility and end presidential reelection [1]. At a Goiânia rally he vowed to "re-democratise" Brazil, calling himself the only barrier to barbarity, while denying he intends to complete his father's authoritarian project [11]. Left-wing congresswoman Talíria Petrone called the statement "the announcement of a coup," and newly elected PT congressman Marcelo Freixo noted that Brazil was re-democratised in 1988 and that Bolsonaro's father was convicted of attempting to undo that [11]. Political scientist Celso Rocha de Barros said Bolsonaro uses "re-democratise" to smuggle authoritarian purposes into acceptable language, and historian Danilo Araújo Marques recalled that Brazil's 1964 coup leaders also claimed to be democratising the country [11].

Lula dismissed the polls, saying he does not work that way and has 17 days to secure more votes than Flávio [5]. His campaign has pivoted to a digital-first strategy with self-shot videos, young legislators and influencers, and a WhatsApp network run by deputy André Janones called the "Army of Lula" with nearly two million followers [3][12]. First Lady Rosângela "Janja" da Silva posted a video affirming the campaign is "a todo vapor en las redes y en las calles" (in full swing on social media and in the streets) [12]. Young legislator Pedro Rousseff warned that Lula will lose the election unless four points of his campaign are changed, identifying social media as a key area [12].

Brazilian markets surged after Bolsonaro's first-round lead, with the Ibovespa stock index closing 7.7% higher at a record and the real strengthening over 4% on expectations of fiscal consolidation and rate cuts [23][26]. Japanese coverage reported that markets began pricing in a "pro-business government" and a possible trade-policy shift toward deeper US ties [24].

POLITICO framed the first-round result as a "pro-Washington turn" for Brazil, citing the country's size, democracy and rare-earth reserves [14]. Armelle Enders, professor of contemporary history at the University of Paris 8, said a Bolsonaro win would cost the EU a major partner and hand the US access to Brazilian resources [8]. Chinese researcher Zhang Jieyu warned a Flávio win could push Brazil toward "leaving the East for the West," cooling political trust with Beijing [22]. Russian analyst Pavel Koshkin said Brazil is another South American country where the pendulum may swing right, consolidating US control of the hemisphere [25].

Flávio Bolsonaro backed a 2019 bill to remove Amazon conservation requirements, and Bolsonarists captured seven of nine Amazonian states in the first round [6]. The Indigenous umbrella organisation Articulação dos Povos Indígenas do Brasil (APIB) declared support for Lula's re-election, framing the election as a choice between "o retorno de um projeto de morte" (the return of a project of death) and democratic continuity [20].

Researchers analysing the religious vote found Lula ahead among Catholics and Flávio among evangelicals, with University of Reading professor Victor Araújo attributing Lula's evangelical deficit to moral-rooted anti-PT sentiment among Pentecostals [19]. An Infobae opinion column cautioned that Latin American analysts celebrating a regional right-wing wave mistake electoral turnover for genuine institutional transformation [7]. Crypto-sector analysis holds that Lula's re-election would extend oversight and possibly tax stablecoin transactions, while Flávio Bolsonaro has no recorded position on crypto regulation [28].

The runoff is scheduled for October 25 [10].