US Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack said a US strike on Iran could come "absolutely" this weekend, while President Donald Trump told a Florida rally that Washington may launch "another little Operation Epic Fury" against Iran unless Tehran agrees to negotiate [5][26]. Trump described Iran as "finished" and said its nuclear capacity was destroyed, raising the question of whether to end the war quickly or let it continue to weaken Iran gradually [18][1]. When asked about Barrack's remark, Trump said he had no information about it [17][24]. Trump had previously ruled out strikes before the November 3 congressional elections [5][7].
Iranian officials responded with threats of retaliation exceeding a conventional counterattack. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Iran would target oil facilities, undersea data cables, data centers, and AI infrastructure in at least seven Gulf countries if attacked again [15]. Mehdi Mohammadi, advisor to the speaker of Iran's parliament, said Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed in principle on new attacks and that Iran would treat a renewed strike as an existential struggle with no redlines [15]. The IRGC stated that if the US continues escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict will spread to US bases in the region [16][10], and IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said Iran would respond to two or three hits with strikes on twenty targets [37]. The IRGC Navy reported intercepting four "violating" vessels and said three more struck mines in a single day [38].
Eight European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers met in Istanbul and urged Washington and Israel not to renew strikes. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said "military intervention in Iran is not any kind of solution" and that a new attack would spread the war [8][32]. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said further conflict would "create nothing but losers" and have serious consequences for hydrocarbon prices [2][8]. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul accused Iran and the Houthis of "blackmailing world trade and continuing to stranglehold global supplies of energy and fertiliser" [8]. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said the problem cannot be solved militarily and that dialogue is needed to reopen Hormuz [8]. The R4 group of Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt also issued a joint statement calling Israeli occupation the fundamental source of regional instability, while condemning Houthi escalation [2]. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said Egypt would "carry out any measure to protect" Saudi Arabia [2]. Pakistan's foreign ministry denied it had abandoned mediation, saying the Islamabad memorandum remains the framework for peace talks [46]. Al-Sumaria reported that a mediator named Munir delivered a Trump message to Rezaei offering direct talks with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei while threatening broad US-Israeli action if Tehran rejects proposals Qatar is shaping [3].
The war's economic toll has become a US domestic issue. Al Jazeera reported that 60 percent of potential voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the war and 81 percent say it raised living costs, with gas above $4.27 a gallon [29]. Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said gas and grocery costs "all really goes back to this war in Iran" [29], while Republican candidate Mike Rogers argued that letting Iran get a nuclear weapon would mean "$8 a gallon" gas [29]. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the conflict had cost the Department of Defense $38 billion as of August 1, with continued operations costing $2 billion to $3 billion a month [21]. The International Energy Agency said supply constraints could persist well into 2027 [21]. Insurance broker WTW described Hormuz war-risk premiums reaching double-digit rates that can be prohibitive per transit, with senior director Charlie McCammon saying "we haven't had anything to this large of a degree since World War II" [43]. Japan's cabinet approved three bills to diversify crude procurement away from Hormuz [40]. The US strategic petroleum reserve fell to its lowest level in 44 years [39].
Trump accused Iran of fabricating tanker attacks and mining incidents to inflate oil prices before the US midterms, and said more oil is now passing through Hormuz than before the conflict [4][38] — a claim at odds with the IRGC's own announcements that the vessels struck mines laid by its navy [38][39]. He also said 75,000 protesters have died in Iran in less than seven months [4]. China News Service reported the IRGC Navy's vessel interceptions and mine strikes as Iran maximizing pressure before the US midterms [38].
Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to topple Iran's clerical state, calling regime overthrow the only way to eliminate the threat from Tehran [5][9]. China News Service reported Netanyahu instructed the Israeli military, Mossad, and intelligence services to "推翻伊朗政权" (overthrow the Iranian regime) [39]. The IDF canceled all military leave until the October 27 parliamentary elections and is on heightened alert [14]. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Netanyahu in Israel to discuss joint attack plans [14][15]. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Iranian missiles can now reach European countries [36].
Russia and China contested the legality of reimposed UN sanctions on Iran at the Security Council. Russia's mission argued the snapback mechanism had not been activated and that the US, UK, France, and Germany stripped themselves of the right to invoke it through violations of the JCPOA [47]. China's mission said the US unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA and triggered the nuclear crisis [47]. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow blocked attempts at the UN to justify "US-Israeli aggression" against Iran and offered mediation, including a proposal to take Iran's enriched uranium to Russia [41][42]. France's UN mission said Iran's stockpile of 450 kilogrammes of highly enriched uranium is enough for several nuclear weapons [47]. Rezaei said Iran refuses to send even one gram of enriched uranium abroad [16].
Trump told the same Florida rally that after Iran, the US will deal with Cuba, with warships stopping off the Cuban coast and Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent to finish a deal [11][25][28]. Rubio posted on X urging Cubans to seek political change through "a discrete partnership with the CIA" [44][45]. The CIA published Spanish-language guidance for potential sources on contacting the agency [45]. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez rejected the threats, saying "Cuba no es una amenaza, el bloqueo sí" (Cuba is not a threat, the blockade is) and that Cuba's coastline is inhospitable to those arriving with hostile purposes [11][45]. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío mocked the US for "reclutamientos públicos de la CIA" (public CIA recruitment) [45]. Rodríguez said Cuba has always been ready to negotiate with the United States [28].
Iraqi government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi said the closure of the Shaib border crossing with Iran was a technical and logistical measure, denied that Houthi offices exist in Iraq, and said Iraqi territory will not be used as a launchpad for attacks on neighbours [34]. Iran's Interior Ministry said the closure came without prior notice [34].
Analysts read Tehran's threats against Gulf undersea cables as deterrence signaling aimed at Gulf investors rather than a global connectivity risk. Alain Mauldin of TeleGeography said less than one percent of international telecom capacity transits the Strait of Hormuz [33]. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said Tehran uses the cable threats to push Gulf governments and companies to pressure Trump over risks to their investments [33]. Gulf states have said strikes on energy infrastructure tied to Iran's South Pars field threaten global energy security [35].
US and Israeli media report that Washington and Tel Aviv are preparing a short but intense campaign against Iran's nuclear, missile, drone, and energy targets after the midterms, possibly using the "Mother of All Bombs" [10][30]. CENTCOM said a 100-day naval blockade blocked at least $25 billion in Iranian crude exports [10]. The Atlantic reported that US officials say strikes are likely immediately after the midterm elections and could last several days, though no final decision has been made [22]. The US announced new sanctions targeting Iranian law firms, shipping agents, and cargo ships [20].