Israelis vote on 27 October in a parliamentary election that pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition against an opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, with polls putting neither side clearly at the 61-seat majority needed to govern [2][5][12]. The vote, the first since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack [19], takes place under a full closure of the West Bank ordered by the Israel Defense Forces and an ongoing military operation in Hebron that has displaced roughly 2,000 Palestinians [4][6][9][18] — a figure Hebron's mayor puts at about 2,200 [20].
The IDF announced it would close all West Bank land crossings on election day and bar Palestinian workers from settlements, industrial zones, and Israeli communities from Sunday through Monday, following a checkpoint attack near Hebron on Friday that killed two Israeli soldiers [4][6][13][20]. Netanyahu travelled to Hebron immediately after the attack and vowed a response on a scale not seen since the 1967 Six-Day War, threatening a "very big surprise" for the Palestinian Authority [9][11][37]. Defence Minister Israel Katz said displaced residents "will not be allowed to return... until we've finished dealing with all the Hamas issues in Hebron" [6][9][20]. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he personally ordered the demolition of a row of structures, warning that "anyone who messes with us will quickly understand that he will pay a painful price" [6][9]. Hamas hailed the attack but did not claim responsibility for carrying it out [6][9].
Hebron Mayor Youssef al-Jaabari said the operation was "driven by the elections" and that Netanyahu and his ministers were trying to secure far-right and settler votes [4][39]. A Hebron shopkeeper, Higazi Shawer al-Tamimi, described being ordered to leave his home at 1 a.m. and said the operation is taking place because Netanyahu wants to win the election with "the blood of the Palestinian people" [6][9]. The Palestinian Authority described the actions as "collective punishment" and called for international pressure [20], while the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs demanded urgent international action [11]. The Israeli human rights organisation B'Tselem describes Israel's rule over the West Bank as an apartheid regime in which Palestinians live under military law without rights or freedom of movement [13].
Netanyahu's campaign has drawn accusations of intimidation from opposition leaders. He published an AI-generated image of a nuclear mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv and warned that electing anyone else could bring a "second Holocaust," arguing only he can confront Iran while Trump is in office [24][25]. Eisenkot wrote on X: `Netanyahu, ești isteric` (Netanyahu, you are hysterical), accusing him of resorting to lies and intimidation tactics and threatening citizens with mass destruction [24][25]. Naftali Bennett said Netanyahu presents a vision that only his premiership allows Israelis to survive, calling it a lie [24]. Yair Golan called for Netanyahu to be kept off social media, saying he and those around him had lost their minds [24].
Hebrew media reported a rift between Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir over a possible pre-election military strike on Iran, with Zamir demanding written legal authorization and reportedly stating he saw no operational necessity to attack before the vote [24][32]. Opposition leaders Eisenkot, Golan, Lapid, and Avigdor Liberman backed Zamir and accused Netanyahu of politicising the army to delay elections or preserve his power [32]. Netanyahu denied any rift, saying Iran was trying to influence the election [32].
US President Donald Trump publicly urged Israelis to vote for Netanyahu, posting on Truth Social: `Cuando vayan a las urnas, por favor recuerden que Bibi ha sido un sobresaliente primer ministro guerrero` (When you go to the polls, please remember that Bibi has been an outstanding warrior prime minister) [26]. Trump warned that the United States would have to "do the work" alone if Israel chose another leader [26]. Eisenkot responded that "the citizens of Israel are the only ones who will decide who will be prime minister" [26]. Vice President JD Vance distanced himself from the endorsement, saying he was not getting involved in Israel's elections [26]. Axios reported that Netanyahu asked Trump for stronger campaign support, a request the White House read as a sign of desperation; Likud denies the request was made [26]. Settler supporters in the occupied West Bank praised the outgoing coalition's performance across multiple fronts and credited Smotrich with refusing hostage deals with Hamas [28].
Eisenkot has framed the election as primarily about Israel's identity, telling supporters it is about "a Jewish state, a democratic state, a liberal, tolerant, egalitarian state," and has pledged a state inquiry into 7 October and enforcement of ultra-Orthodox military draft rulings [21]. Four opposition parties — Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Together alliance — signed a non-aggression pact to "preserve and strengthen Israel as a Jewish and democratic state" [2]. The October Council, a protest group founded by families of 7 October victims and hostages, organised a Tel Aviv rally three days before the vote demanding accountability and a state commission of inquiry, which Netanyahu's government has refused, offering a political commission instead [4][33][37]. Researcher Shahar Burla said losing the election would be disastrous for Netanyahu because his premiership is the source of all his influence in the judicial proceedings against him [16].
The ultra-Orthodox draft exemption has become a central election issue after the Supreme Court voided the exemption. Rabbi Dov Landau said religious students should not serve in the army, arguing that "salvation only comes through Torah learning" and that Torah learners "protect us" [31]. Former minister Yitzhak Goldknopf warned that Haredim "will not change their way of life because there is an army and a war" and would leave the country if forced [31]. Eisenkot countered that "a country that sends its best sons and daughters to fight and sacrifice their lives cannot tolerate a reality in which a state within a state exists" [31]. Pollster Dahlia Scheindlin said the draft exemption is a main reason Netanyahu's coalition is polling at 50-52 seats rather than its 2022 level of 64 [31]. Netanyahu pledged in a pre-election interview to pass a law drafting 23,000 Haredim within three and a half years [36].
Displaced Palestinians in Gaza expect no improvement whichever bloc wins. Sami Abu Rumi, a 47-year-old from Rafah, said he hoped for a government "less inclined towards killing, displacement and our extermination" but expected Israeli governments to think largely alike [10]. Haneen Hamdouna, a 45-year-old from Beit Lahia, said "I do not believe anyone genuinely cares about Gaza" and that attacking Gaza has become part of Israeli election campaigning regardless of who leads [10]. Noor AlMoghanni, a 20-year-old from Gaza City, said "whether Netanyahu wins or loses, the reality here will not change" [10]. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have campaigned on destroying Hamas, both oppose Palestinian statehood, and Eisenkot as a former military commander championed the Dahiya doctrine of overwhelming force [8][10][30].
Investors expect an opposition victory to lower Israel's risk premium and strengthen the shekel [44]. Rafi Gozlan, chief economist at IBI Investment House, said an opposition win would likely be reflected in a decline in Israel's risk premium, appreciation pressure on the shekel, and a positive local market reaction [44]. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said a government without Ben-Gvir and Smotrich would signal Israel is "turning a new page" [44]. Chinese think tanks assess that Netanyahu's departure could serve Chinese interests by reducing regional escalation and protecting trade routes [47]. European analysts predict a new government might curb settler violence but would not abandon settlement expansion or opposition to Palestinian statehood [42][43].
Arab Israeli turnout is projected to rise from 56% in 2022 to 63%, potentially deciding which bloc can govern [12][40]. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra'am, said a high Arab turnout can `Nous pouvons garantir la formation d'un nouveau gouvernement du changement` (guarantee the formation of a new government of change) [40]. The Joint List aired an election video with drone footage of Gaza's ruins, saying Israelis "behave as if everything that has happened here is completely normal" [10]. Eisenkot has refused to ally with any Arab party, citing their refusal to call Hamas a terrorist group [40]. About 67,000 Israelis are flying home to vote, with analysts saying overseas voters tend to favour political change [1].
Polls remain too close to call, with the opposition bloc projected at 52-56 seats against 50 for Netanyahu's alliance [2][12][16]. Coalition negotiations will follow the vote, with a 28-day window extendable by 14 days for a government to be formed [16]. The IDF's West Bank closure remains in effect through election day, and the Hebron operation continues with displaced residents barred from returning [4][18].