The United States has warned several Gulf states to prepare for a possible short and intense military operation against Iran after the November midterms, with US forces bolstering missile defence, restocking munitions and preparing bombers and fighter jets, according to a Wall Street Journal report relayed by Iranian media [6]. The warning came as Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi told a Cambridge University audience that "issues such as the strait of Hormuz have become impossible to resolve because external powers continue to define the terms of engagement" [8], and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council that Iran has denied inspectors access to verify previously declared nuclear material, including 440kg of highly enriched uranium, since inspectors were withdrawn in June 2025 [18][20].
President Donald Trump has publicly framed Iran as the aggressor. At a rally in Corinth, Mississippi, Trump said "Iran started the war with us" and dismissed the April Pakistan-brokered ceasefire as "a waste of time" [10][13][16]. He has stated on social media that there will be no deal with Iran short of unconditional surrender [22], and has threatened further strikes on Iranian power plants, bridges and civilian infrastructure [12]. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has repeatedly said he wants to send Iran "back into the Stone Age" [12]. Washington separately warned Iraqi officials that US forces would strike Iran-aligned armed factions directly and without prior coordination if they join a renewed conflict [2].
Iranian officials have set preconditions for any negotiations. MP Aladdin Boroujerdi said Iran will not negotiate until seven conditions are met, that its missile stockpile has grown by more than 50 percent and could sustain two years of war, and that it will not hand over its enriched uranium [17]. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Hormuz will reopen and talks begin only after Washington suspends sanctions, unfreezes assets, lifts the naval blockade and guarantees no further strikes [1]. Analyst Sina Toossi told Al Jazeera that "Iran believes previous negotiations and ceasefire arrangements failed to protect it from renewed military attacks, and it is therefore seeking more tangible and durable guarantees" [1].
Oman's Albusaidi called for a non-aggression pact among the six Gulf states, Iran and Iraq, arguing that "any Gulf security architecture that doesn't include [Iran] is inherently unstable" [9]. The speech coincided with a Tehran visit by the defence and intelligence chiefs of Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia — the Mecca Defence Alliance states — aimed at preventing renewed US-Iran fighting [8][21]. Qatar's Foreign Ministry described a separate delegation's visit to Tehran as part of ongoing mediation in which proposals continue to be exchanged between Washington and Tehran [3]. Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman warned Iran against further strikes while signalling Riyadh could activate its joint defence agreement with Pakistan [22]. Analyst Rami Khouri said the Tehran meeting aims first at de-escalation and a permanent ceasefire with stronger mediation by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye [1].
The IAEA's Grossi told the Security Council that inspectors have been available to return for months but Iran has denied access, stressing that any solution must include IAEA verification [18]. He said there is no indication Iran has attempted to repair or reconstruct nuclear facilities damaged in the military strikes [19]. Pakistan's acting UN ambassador Usman Jadoon warned that "the situation regarding the Iran nuclear file has sharply deteriorated" and urged that IAEA technical questions be handled without politicisation [4]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, speaking in Cairo, said "we need maximum restraint and diplomatic solutions" and insisted navigational rights be restored in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb [11]. Brazil's foreign ministry condemned military offensives while expressing solidarity with Gulf states hit by Iranian retaliation, calling diplomacy the only viable path [29].
Israeli and US electoral calendars are shaping the timing of potential strikes. Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed the military to provoke a war with Iran before Tuesday's Israeli election, with Channel 12 reporting a clash between Netanyahu and IDF chief of staff Eyal Zamir over a directive that could spark an immediate conflagration [15]. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot said "we won't allow the IDF to be turned into a pawn in Netanyahu's survival campaign" [15]. US-affairs analyst Amir Ali Abolfath argued that a Democratic midterm victory would constrain but not stop a war because the president retains commander-in-chief authority, and that a strike before the 3 November vote is plausible if Washington believes it can force a surrender in days [14]. Trump's approval on the war stands at 34 percent, and Iranian officials are reportedly prolonging talks to deny him a pre-election win [1].
Russia's UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia condemned "the aggression by the United States and Israel against Iran" as the root cause of the crisis and voted against a Gulf-sponsored maritime security resolution [27]. China announced it will send an envoy to countries in the region to help prevent another round of escalation [1].
The economic fallout is spreading across import-dependent economies. The UN Economic Commission for Latin America projected 2026 oil prices 20-25 percent above 2025 levels, with lasting impacts even if diplomatic progress holds [28]. India, which sources roughly half its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, faces direct exposure to price rises [30]. African economies including Kenya, Nigeria and Ethiopia have taken emergency measures over fuel supplies [31]. Gulf states have suffered over $120 billion in wiped market capitalisation in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and 18,400 cancelled flights [9]. Kuwait banned food exports and froze retail prices at pre-war levels [23]. Analysts say China's strategic and commercial reserves could cover up to six months even if Middle East supply were cut off, while Japan's energy agency cites about eight months of oil reserves plus roughly a year of LNG inventory [26][32].
Inside Iran, residents describe paralyzed ports and collapsing imports. A shipping specialist in Tehran told Euronews that "since the war began, maybe one out of ten cargo ships leaving China actually reaches Iran" [24]. A truck driver from Kermanshah said "Bandar Abbas is dead" [24]. A user on X, quoted by Al Jazeera, wrote that "90 million people have our eyes to the sky to see when there will be war" [12]. Another Tehran resident said Iranians who initially hoped for the government's overthrow were disillusioned after US and Israeli bombing of infrastructure "that we need to live, like oil and gas, power and steel" [12].
Qatari mediators spent Sunday in Tehran seeking terms under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz [8]. The Pentagon has continued briefing on a major US military buildup in preparation for a possible assault after the midterm elections [8]. Trump has said he has not made a final decision, asking publicly: "My question is, do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off?" [1].