Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the armed forces to deliver an "immediate, impactful and geographically unrestricted response" to any US or Israeli threat, instructing commanders to update Iran's target list to include all American and Israeli "tangible and intangible assets" [1][3][9]. The directive, issued after Khamenei's first reported meeting with senior military commanders Ali Abdollahi, Amir Hatami and Ahmad Vahidi, states that Iran's armed forces and nation will determine the timing and conditions for ending any new conflict [7][30]. Major General Ali Abdollahi, head of the armed forces' General Staff, said the US and Israel would face a response "beyond imagination" and that Iran alone would determine the end of any new war [27]. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that "red lines are a thing of the past" and warned that European war costs are "nothing compared to the earth-shattering blow Iran's Powerful Armed Forces will deal against those who dare harm our people" [13][9]. The orders come as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue and oil from a struck vessel has reached the UAE coastline [33][35].
Iranian state media reported that four oil tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz, some after striking naval mines — a tally other Iranian accounts put as high as six [3] or seven [38] — with the Revolutionary Guards Navy saying the vessels were using "unauthorised routes" [19][22][24]. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a tanker was approached by a small boat that attached two explosive devices to its hull, and assessed that Hormuz shipping is running 70 percent below pre-conflict levels [3][24]. Oman's navy rescued 25 sailors from the burning Panama-flagged RITI, and the IRGC said a supertanker carrying two million barrels exploded after striking a naval mine [22]. The container ship GFS Pride sank in the strait, with marine insurers recording additional war-risk premiums climbing from 0.25 percent of hull value before the war to 6–10 percent in October [32].
Gulf governments condemned the attacks as violations of international law and UN Security Council resolution 2817. GCC secretary-general Jasem Al-Budaiwi expressed condemnation of repeated Iranian attacks on ADNOC tankers and commercial ships, calling them a grave violation of freedom of international navigation [46]. Saudi, Emirati, Qatari and Kuwaiti foreign ministries each invoked the resolution, with Kuwait calling the attacks "a flagrant violation of international law" and Saudi Arabia holding Iran "fully responsible for the consequences" [46]. A maritime security firm, Marisks, said there was no independent evidence of a mine and characterized Iran's claims as part of a campaign to frighten shipping away from the waterway [32].
Iranian officials frame the strait operations as lawful enforcement. The IRGC said two vessels on an unauthorized route ignored radio warnings and were halted, while a third struck a naval mine [22]. Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argued that the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic asset that policy must convert into security and economic gain rather than a unilateral obligation [29]. An Iranian state-affiliated poll reported that 77.5 percent of respondents said Iran should keep control of the strait even at the risk of another war with the United States [37]. Iran's UN ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, called a defeated Security Council draft on Hormuz navigation a US text "under another name" that mischaracterized Iran's lawful self-defence measures [40].
Washington and Jerusalem assert that Iran's military capacity has been largely destroyed. Trump said the US has "knocked out their nuclear" program and still must "take care of" one or two sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, adding "we can do that in 10 minutes" [6][26]. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that Iran's entire ballistic missile production capacity was "effectively defeated and destroyed" [12]. Netanyahu spoke of a "historic, one-time opportunity" to topple the Iranian government [6][9]. US and Israeli intelligence assess that Mojtaba Khamenei was seriously wounded alongside his father in the February airstrikes and has since been isolated [17]. CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper said he flew over the strait and saw dozens of commercial vessels supported by US aircraft, adding "I didn't see the IRGC out there at all" [3].
US Senator Chris Murphy called plans for a renewed military campaign "insane," warning they would lead to "devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law" [3][8]. An IISS study found that 12 regional states faced 4,670 Iranian drones and more than 1,400 ballistic missiles before the April ceasefire, with damage to energy infrastructure estimated as high as $58 billion, and concluded that US bases failed to protect Gulf partners [10]. Non-proliferation expert Eric Brewer stated there is no military solution for remaining nuclear sites and that striking energy targets is unlikely to cause Iran to capitulate [3]. Senior IDF officials said they see no reason to strike Iran before the US midterms absent signs of an imminent Iranian attack [38].
A Qatari delegation held more than 12 hours of talks in Tehran, coordinated in real time with the White House, producing what a source called "positive progress" toward a package of reciprocal steps and a return to direct nuclear talks [4][18][31]. Araghchi told Al Jazeera that talks are under way with Qatari mediators on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the US cooperates [20]. Pakistan's military spokesman described the country as "cautiously optimistic" about its mediation after Field Marshal Asim Munir's two trips to Tehran alongside Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin [28]. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said the two sides are "very close" to a de-escalation deal [8].
The diplomatic channel remains blocked by sequencing. Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf rejected the US "carrot-and-stick" approach and said progress requires acceptance of Iran's seven conditions, including sanctions relief, unfrozen assets, oil-export waivers, a reduced US military presence, recognition of the new Oman-coordinated Hormuz shipping route, and an end to fighting on all fronts including Lebanon [8][5][21]. Washington demands Iranian nuclear concessions and facility access up front [4][31]. Araghchi said there are "currently no plans for meetings with American officials" and that Iran will decide on direct or indirect talks only after Washington meets its conditions [9][5]. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said he had read the Vance letter but not responded, adding "their tone has completely changed" [6][15].
The Trump administration is divided between officials favoring further strikes and those pushing for talks. Rubio and Hegseth are skeptical that any agreement with the current Iranian government is possible and favor further weakening Tehran through additional strikes and continued pressure [18][31], though Rubio has publicly said Trump has not decided on fresh strikes and prefers a diplomatic solution [6][9]. Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner want direct negotiations restarted, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges continued economic pressure rather than rushing to military action [18][31]. Regional governments including Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have called on Iran to settle before the US midterms, while Netanyahu is pressing Trump to carry out new strikes immediately after the elections [18][31].
The economic and civilian costs continue to mount. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the war has added more than €100 billion to European energy costs over eight months [13][24]. The US war bill reached $47.1 billion by mid-October, with base damage possibly reaching $15 billion [12]. In Iran, approximately 800 medicines are in short supply, including 90 essential and life-saving drugs, according to the Iranian Pharmacists Association, and the sales director of the bombed producer Tofigh Daru says partial rebuilding of its production lines would require at least two years — though the head of Iran's Food and Drug Administration disputes the severity of the shortages [36]. Oil from the struck Gem No. 2 tanker spread more than 35 kilometers toward a Key Biodiversity Area off the UAE coast, with researchers warning that oil can persist in sediments, mangroves and seagrass for years after the visible slick is gone [34][35], though Emirati authorities say the leak has been stopped at its source and pollution concentrations are declining [33].
Chinese and Russian voices argue that Beijing and Moscow actively shaped the ceasefire and must underwrite any emerging arrangement. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the Iran-China-Russia strategic partnership will "continue at full strength" [39][45]. China and Russia vetoed a Gulf-sponsored Security Council draft on Hormuz navigation, with China's envoy saying the text failed to reflect the conflict's root causes [40]. Arab monarchies asked Moscow to lean on Tehran over shipping, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov offered Russian mediation while supporting freedom of navigation through the strait [41]. Analyst Velina Tchakarova said Russia and China "actively shaped Iran's negotiating position" and that Moscow wants to prove US military pressure cannot achieve regime change [39].
Analyst Marzieh Kouhi Esfahani of Durham University said both sides are determined to exit the "no war, no peace" stalemate and that a wider war is more likely than peace [8]. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group warned that "the military machine is being prepared and the time for diplomacy is running out," cautioning that Trump may become a "fire duck" after the midterms, taking larger risks [8]. Iran has pledged to hit oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, and to target Gulf internet cables and data centres, in retaliation for any new US or Israeli strikes on its energy infrastructure [18]. The Qatari mediation track has moved to Doha, with mediators proposing phased confidence-building in which UN inspectors would verify damaged Iranian nuclear sites in exchange for partial US sanctions relief [31].