Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei warned that every US military base involved in aggression against Iran — "from West Asia to Europe" — would be a legitimate target for Iranian strikes if the United States launches another war [5][6][19]. The warning, posted on X and echoed across Iranian state media, came days after President Donald Trump declared the conflict with Iran "effectively over" and said Washington was maintaining the status quo at the request of neighbouring countries [13][14].
Rezaei wrote that there would be "no safe distance, no safe haven, no immunity" for any base used to attack Iran [5]. Senior armed forces spokesperson Sardar Abolfazl Shekarchi said any new aggression would meet a response "many times" stronger and that enemy assets in Iran's "target bank" would be struck by the fiercest attack [2]. Deputy Chief of Staff Kioumars Heydari said the armed forces had updated their target list and removed geographical restrictions on retaliatory strikes, ready to send it to army and IRGC commanders [12].
Iranian parliamentarian Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani named Italy and Germany specifically, saying Iran's missiles would be fired towards Europe if the US used its bases there [15]. Adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mohammad Mokhber warned European states that any complicity in the US blockade would be "an act of war that will be etched in the nation's historical memory" [4]. Basij Organization head Hossein Taeb stated that Iran had struck Diego Garcia with missiles during a 40-day war and said Iran's defensive capacity was "unpredictable" [9].
The Iranian warnings contradict Trump's declaration that the war was "militarily finished" [14]. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from Paris during a G7 meeting, said there was no current need for major combat operations because economic pressure on Iran was devastating [14][18][7]. Trump said Washington was maintaining the status quo at the request of neighbouring countries [13].
Iranian officials rejected the "effectively over" framing. Mehdi Mohammadi, adviser to chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Washington had set a roughly two-week window for Trump to decide on military action and was preparing a limited strike [4]. Mohammadi said Iran would not allow the blockade to continue and would use all tools, including military action, to break it [11]. Russian Foreign Ministry deputy director Maxim Maksimov said Moscow could not exclude a force scenario if negotiations collapsed, noting three US carrier strike groups and two Marine expeditionary groups deployed in the region [20]. Israeli media reported that the security cabinet had directed the military to step up preparations for a possible strike on Iran, while Gadi Eisenkot, tasked with forming Israel's next government, told caretaker prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to deploy the military without a direct and immediate threat [18].
Iranian officials dismissed reports of ongoing negotiations as disinformation. Rezaei told Al-Mayadeen that US claims about continued negotiations and a Qatar meeting were lies aimed at easing economic pressure and lowering oil prices [6]. Mohammadi said the US response to Iran's Hormuz proposals was deceptive and that Washington refused to release frozen funds [4]. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei accused Washington of a coordinated disinformation campaign to portray itself as a victim [10]. At the same time, Iranian-linked reporting presented Russia as the operative mediation channel: Taeb said Trump sent a special envoy to Vladimir Putin before the US election to open talks with Iran, and that Rezaei traveled to Moscow to convey Iran's response [9]. Putin met with Rezaei, who said he delivered a message from Iran's supreme leader and discussed energy and transport cooperation [21].
Iran has tied the Strait of Hormuz to seven conditions for de-escalation. Ghalibaf said the ball was in the US court and that Washington must accept the limits of its own legal rights in the region [1]. Ghalibaf said Iran was determined to overcome the "neither war nor peace" condition through sustained deterrence and listed seven conditions the US must meet to reopen the strait [13]. Iran has granted Chinese, Indian, Iraqi and Qatari vessels exemptions from Hormuz transit restrictions, according to the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee [23]. Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz would never return to its pre-war status [18].
Gulf states and Jordan formally rejected Iran's unilateral management of the strait. In a joint letter to the UN and Security Council in May, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan affirmed that their defence arrangements with international partners are legitimate sovereign practices and that no third party may impose security choices on them [22]. Turkey announced in March that an additional Patriot air-defence system was being deployed to Incirlik in Adana after ballistic missiles Ankara attributes to Iran entered Turkish airspace, with the Turkish Ministry of National Defence stressing the base remains under Turkish control [27].
On the nuclear file, Iran formally remains in the NPT but argues that attacks on its nuclear facilities make normal IAEA cooperation impossible [16][17]. Rezaei told Russia that not even a particle of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile would leave the country, citing future naval propulsion needs [4]. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council in late October that the agency was unable to verify Iran's nuclear material because Tehran had not provided requested information and access [16]. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said Tehran was keeping one foot inside the NPT and the other near the exit, using Bushehr inspections as a low-cost gesture to keep diplomacy alive while preserving leverage over underground sites [16].
US intelligence assessed that an Iranian conspiracy against figures enforcing the sanctions regime had reached an advanced phase, forcing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to relocate to a military base, while simultaneously judging Iran's ability to mount large-scale external operations to be limited [3] — an assessment that stands in tension with Iranian assertions of long-range strike capacity.
Inside Iran, the blockade's economic toll is documented. BBC Persian reported that non-oil exports fell 28.2% and imports 26.1% year-on-year, oil exports dropped to approximately 255,000 barrels per day, and shortages of medicine, petrol and feed inputs have spread [26]. Iranian economist Jamshid Asadi said falling state export revenue and the inability to import needed goods would ultimately produce runaway inflation [26]. Japan Research Institute called the Hormuz closure the largest oil-supply disruption since the modern oil industry began, arguing that stockpile releases and China's import cuts had merely muted prices [24]. Brazil's Petrobras said it was evaluating adjustments to its fuel-pricing policy because the war apparently would not end in the short term [25].
The US military stated that forces continue round-the-clock work to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for commercial shipping while strictly enforcing the "iron sea blockade" against Iran [13]. Trump has said he is prepared to return to war if diplomacy mediated by Qatar fails [18].