President Donald Trump told the UN General Assembly on September 22 that he faces a "big decision" between annihilating Iran or reaching a deal, while disclosing that US and Iranian officials had held a three-hour meeting on the assembly's sidelines — the first such talks in months [3][7][17]. The speech paired an explicit threat to "drive them into hell" with the prediction that an agreement would come "directly after" the November 3 midterm elections [7][26]. The same week, US Treasury sanctions designating 27 Iranian airlines and suspending aviation authorizations took effect, threatening to sever Iranian commercial aviation from global service networks [38][42].
Trump framed the moment as a binary choice. "Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly?" he said [9][10]. He said US airstrikes had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program and destroyed all 159 Iranian naval vessels, called on all nations to enforce the "complete economic isolation of Iran," and predicted oil prices would "come plummeting down" below pre-war levels [14][27][32]. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said Trump is open to a peace agreement, provided Iranian negotiators come to the table in good faith and speak for Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei [4]. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, though no meeting was scheduled [8][20].
Iran's military command answered the annihilation threat with a warning of its own. Iran's Armed Forces General Staff and the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said Iran would inflict "ancora più duri, devastanti e imprevedibili" (even harder, devastating and unpredictable) blows on any aggressor [1]. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei called Trump's bombing threat a blatant contradiction of international peace and security and a gross violation of the UN Charter and IAEA safeguards regime [40]. Iran's UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani described the remarks as a violation of international law, and the Iranian delegation walked out of the assembly hall within ten minutes of the speech's start [8][17][40]. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov condemned Trump's threats and ultimatums as an attempt to impose his will on Iran [40].
At the same time, Iranian officials conveyed conditional openness to negotiations through Qatari mediators. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi relayed Tehran's terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz: lifting the US naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and ending the war on all fronts [33]. A senior Iranian official said Iran could reopen the strait within seven days if the US eases military pressure, an initiative reported as approved by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei [35][44]. Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei stated Tehran is demanding the US end fighting on all fronts, release billions in frozen assets, and lift the naval blockade [34]. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed the mediators would continue their work, calling the discussions "constructive and promising" [7].
World leaders used the General Assembly podium to reject coercion as an organizing principle. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Brazil "não cabe no quintal de ninguém" (does not fit in anyone's backyard) and warned against dividing the world into spheres of influence [2]. French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the "law of the jungle" and called Gaza "un spectacle qui nous fait honte à tous" (a spectacle that shames us all), while proposing dual moratoriums on energy and civilian infrastructure strikes [24]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that "the fault lines in our world are widening" [7]. Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani said the Gulf crisis stems from the absence of a regional collective-security system and warned that Hormuz passage has become a bargaining chip [10][24]. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said eight countries had come together striving to overcome Gulf difficulties [6].
Oil prices fell after Trump's disclosure of the talks. Brent held below $100 as Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline and loaded approximately 14 million barrels onto seven very large crude carriers inside the Gulf [35]. Analyst Stephen Innes of Quintex Intel said the three-hour meeting "shifts the market from pure escalation pricing toward a genuine diplomatic process, even if a final deal still looks distant" [36]. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen said he did not see much further downside to oil prices until supplies increase through the Strait of Hormuz [35]. Russian-based economist Mikhail Khachaturyan estimated roughly 20 percent of world oil production has dropped out, with the EU, the poorest African states, and East Asian countries bearing the heaviest burden [46].
The aviation sanctions operate through a secondary-enforcement architecture. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that any airport, ground handler, or ticket agent servicing Iranian carriers would be "knocked out of the dollar system" [22]. OFAC designated 27 Iranian airlines and suspended General License J-1, which had authorized overflight and bunkering services, with a 15-day wind-down period ending September 23 [38][42]. Mahan Air announced it would suspend flights to Oman and Turkey [39]. Turkish Airlines told BBC Persian its cancellation of Iran flights would continue until March 2027, and Pegasus said it does not fly to Iran or over Iranian airspace [42].
Iranian civil aviation authorities disputed the scale of the disruption. Spokesperson Majid Akhavan said 27 Iranian airlines are on the sanctions list but "این موضوع به معنای توقف پروازهای خارجی کشور نیست" (this does not mean the country's foreign flights have stopped), with only Mahan Air limited on some destinations [41]. Abouzar Shiravdi, head of Iran's Civil Aviation Organization, said no foreign airline currently operates in Iran except Al-Iraqiya, and that post-sanctions compliance by other countries will depend on their own policies [43].
Ordinary Iranians warned that the aviation blockade's true damage lies in cargo flights carrying medicine and essentials. One citizen told Iran International that "همه به پروازهای مسافرتی فکر میکنند، ولی اصل مشکلی که ایجاد میشود پروازهای ترابری است" (everyone thinks about passenger flights, but the real problem created is transport flights) [39]. In Yemen, Sanaa's Health and Environment Ministry said the airport blockade has deprived thousands of patients of travel for treatment and left more than 20 million without basic healthcare, documenting 17 million facing acute hunger [48].
Independent analysts questioned whether a coherent strategy connects Trump's threats to his desired end-state. Columbia scholar Lincoln Mitchell said Iran faces no time pressure and that "if he could get a deal tomorrow, he would" [9]. Iran expert Fatemeh Aman said Trump wants to end the war from a position that lets him claim Iran's capabilities were weakened and Tehran forced back to talks, but that "a coherent strategy for this is hard to discern" [34]. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump's approval at a record-low 32 percent, while a CNN poll found only 26 percent support for his war approach, and the Congressional Budget Office found it could take five years to replenish US munitions stockpiles [25][29].
Trump said another meeting is scheduled soon and predicted a deal after the November midterms [10][26]. The Qatari mediators are continuing their shuttle between the two sides [7]. The aviation sanctions took full effect on September 23, with compliance decisions now pending from foreign airports, carriers, and service providers [38][42].