CNN reported on October 15 that the US military has drawn up plans to use the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast weapon — the largest non-nuclear bomb in the American arsenal — against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites, including the Pickaxe Mountain facility, if President Donald Trump orders renewed combat [2][15][16][19][27]. The reported planning undercuts Trump's earlier statement that the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, though he has also said the US could act before the vote [1][15][26]. Iranian parliamentarians concurrently advanced a proposal to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in response to an IAEA Board of Governors resolution referring Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council [29][30].
Trump told a rally in Bullhead City, Arizona, that Iran had lost its navy, air force, radar and air defences, and that the war would end "very soon" with fuel prices dropping [10]. He repeated the prediction in an NBC interview, saying the US would "defeat Iran very quickly" and that oil prices would fall [13][18]. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would not retreat until Iran's financial arteries were completely cut off, and new sanctions were imposed on October 15 [25][31]. Kpler data cited by CNBC showed Iran's crude loadings fell more than 80 percent in August 2026 versus a year earlier under the US naval blockade [31].
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that military force cannot force a nation into submission and described the blockade as the most intense since the 1979 Revolution [2]. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran must prepare for war even as it negotiates, accusing Washington of "making promises and then breaking them" [21]. Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hussein Mohebi said new US attacks before the midterms were a realistic possibility and that Iran was prepared [3]. Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran had been striking vessels in the US-backed shuttle through the Strait of Hormuz nightly and that the strait remained under Iran's control [1]. Iranian army chief Amir Hatami said the war had not ended and the armed forces would maintain readiness [26]. Reuters reported that Iranian missiles and drones struck Persian Gulf infrastructure at least 135 times, slowing US war plans [23].
Unnamed US officials told CNN they doubted the MOAB could penetrate deeply buried sites like Pickaxe Mountain and warned of civilian casualties [16][19]. Reuters said it could not confirm the report [28]. Former Royal Air Force officer Afzal Ashraf called seizing Kharg Island "the most irrational of the irrational decisions" and argued a renewed air campaign would achieve less because Iran had adapted and concealed its weapons [1]. Patrick Bury, a former NATO research analyst, said he doubted the US could achieve its goals through ground operations [1]. Responsible Statecraft argued that Trump's pursuit of a decisive "win" was self-defeating, noting that continued attacks strengthen Iranian hardliners [12]. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a new attack was "not currently suitable" for Israel, though Axios reported a Trump-Netanyahu phone call about a pre-election strike [20]. Turkish coverage described the search for a "symbolic victory" that would let Trump declare success and withdraw [8].
Iranian Member of Parliament Ghasem Ravanbakhsh said a proposal to withdraw from the NPT had been submitted and was being considered [30]. Alireza Salimi, a member of the parliament's presiding board, said NPT withdrawal was one of Iran's "serious options" for responding to what he called a political and hostile IAEA resolution [38]. Ebrahim Rezaei of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission called withdrawal the "best response" to increased US economic pressure [30]. Nuclear expert Behrooz Bayat, a former IAEA consultant, said a withdrawal would be seen internationally as a signal that Iran intends to keep the nuclear weapons option, and that Tehran's threats were more useful as leverage than as policy [30]. Analyst Shahin Modarres said staying in the NPT with limited inspections preserves uncertainty about Iran's capabilities [30]. Tehran-based analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour said leaving the NPT has never become government policy [30]. Pezeshkian said Iran was willing to submit to verification but only as part of a diplomatic agreement [29]. Vice President JD Vance said a "meaningful" reduction in Iran's uranium enrichment would be necessary for peace [12]. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the NPT withdrawal topic could be discussed at a Putin-Pezeshkian meeting if Iran deemed it necessary to inform Russia [39].
US Labor Department data showed CPI up 3.7 percent and gas prices up 9.1 percent from August to September, with an AP-NORC poll showing only 17 percent approval of Trump's handling of living costs [13][18]. In Iowa, where gas prices rose 69 percent, Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson said Iowans "shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran" [22]. Democratic candidate Josh Turek blamed the war for increases in gas, diesel and fertilizer prices affecting Iowa farmers [22]. Senator Susan Collins of Maine defended the commander-in-chief's "widespread discretion" to conduct war, while her challenger Troy Jackson said she could stop funding the war through her Appropriations Committee chairmanship [22].
Kpler estimated about 5 million barrels per day of Middle East crude and condensate production offline [24]. South Korean vessel insurance premiums for the Hormuz war-risk zone rose by up to over 1,000 percent [41]. Brazil saw diesel prices rise more than 11 percent in a week [43]. JPMorgan wrote that it had no meaningful base scenario for the oil market because it could not model the endgame of the war [24]. Nippon Yusen president Sogawa said the situation "exceeds what one company can handle" [40]. Hungarian analysis described the war as a mutual attrition stalemate where both sides believe time favors them [24]. The same analysis noted that China has shown no willingness to decisively pressure Tehran and maintains an oil-for-goods barter system with Iran worth about $2–2.5 billion, which can increase Tehran's economic resilience [24].
First-person accounts from Iranians described collapsing livelihoods. Sirvan, a startup CEO in Iran, said he had fired all 12 employees as prices changed hour by hour [36]. Retired teacher Ladan in Kerman said "`مملکت در حال از هم پاشیدن است`" (the country is falling apart economically) [37]. The World Food Programme projected that an additional 45 million people could face acute hunger by June because of rises in food, oil and shipping costs [33].
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier described the war in March as a violation of international law [3]. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani said in March that Iraq "does not want to be a party to this war, which lacks any legal basis" [32]. Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said mediation work continued to deliver messages and build common ground between Washington and Tehran [34]. Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir held Iran responsible for the attack that halved Saudi Aramco production and ruled out mediation with Tehran [35].
Qatari mediator Ali Al-Thawadi met Iran's foreign minister in New York to discuss a two-page settlement proposal and then held talks in Washington [34]. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran presented a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks within seven days [29]. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there may not be a nuclear agreement and the US approach may simply be destroying Iran's capabilities [29].