Gulf states are pursuing direct diplomacy with Tehran through a multipart peace plan even as the United States warns them to prepare for a short, intensive military campaign against Iran after the 3 November midterm elections [3][7][11]. The Pentagon disclosed that the war has cost $47.1 billion through 16 October — more than 25 percent above the July estimate [14] — with 21 service members killed and more than 850 wounded, according to Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee [34][46]. A tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz spread an oil slick more than 35 kilometers toward UAE biodiversity areas, closing beaches across Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah [43][44].
US officials told several Gulf Arab states through diplomatic and military channels to brace for potential renewed strikes on Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites after the vote, according to reporting first published by the Wall Street Journal and relayed by outlets across multiple languages [3][11][17][23]. Forces are restocking munitions, moving a Patriot missile defense system from Texas to Israel, and planning to add an aircraft carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit to roughly 20 warships in the region [11][23][36]. Trump said at a Texas rally that the Iran war "will end whenever I want" — `«İran savaşı ben ne zaman istersem o zaman bitecek»` (The Iran war will end whenever I want) — and answered "everything is possible" when asked about a new strike after the midterms [8]. The White House declined to comment on sensitive military planning but said Trump keeps all options open to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon [17][18].
Parallel to the strike warnings, Gulf states are drafting a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within four days of sanctions being lifted — shortened from Iran's earlier seven-day proposal — and pull back a substantial part of Houthi forces inside Yemen [7][27]. Qatar delivered a new draft to Tehran on 25 October providing for daily confidence-building measures and possible UN inspector access in exchange for partial US sanctions relief [10]. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sent senior officials to Tehran for the first high-level contact between Iran and all Makkah Defence Alliance members since Saudi Arabia was drawn deeper into the Houthi conflict, a meeting reportedly proposed by Pakistan's army chief [4][13][28]. Iran kept its nuclear program off the agenda at the Tehran meeting, focusing instead on a long-term regional security vision that would reduce or end the US military presence [7].
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi called on the US and Israel to "leave Iran alone" — `«Dejen en paz a Irán»` (Leave Iran alone) — arguing that with Iran's nuclear facilities already bombed there is no remaining pretext for strikes [9]. Albusaidi proposed an inclusive eight-country Gulf security arrangement that includes Iran, saying the US administration understands the region is heading in that direction and that full Iranian re-engagement would unlock enormous economic potential [5][7]. Pakistan's acting UN ambassador Usman Jadoon told the Security Council that the Iran nuclear file has deteriorated and urged all sides to avoid destabilizing rhetoric [20].
Iranian officials reject the Qatari-mediated draft as "unacceptable ideas" rather than a proposal, with a senior Iranian official saying Tehran's nuclear position is unchanged and it will show no flexibility [10][32]. Iran insists the naval blockade be lifted, frozen funds released and oil sales allowed before any talks [21][24]. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagaei accused Washington of contempt for diplomacy after Trump called the Islamabad ceasefire a waste of time and said he never believed in it — `«El desprecio de Washington por la diplomacia vuelve a quedar al descubierto»` (Washington's contempt for diplomacy is once again exposed) [22]. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any new Israel-instigated military adventure would have a devastating impact on international markets and that a US resort to force would bring `«شکستی راهبردی بهمراتب بزرگتر»` (a far greater strategic defeat) [11][29]. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran will not negotiate until its basic demands are met and warned that Iran could target the UAE, regional data centers and internet cables [19].
Netanyahu frames renewed attacks as a rare opening with Trump to remove the Iranian threat, with operational target lists ready including energy, regime-linked and previously unbombed civilian infrastructure [36][42]. The Israeli daily Globes quoted Netanyahu saying `«הזדמנות היסטורית חד-פעמית»` (a one-time historic opportunity) with Trump to eliminate the existential threat from Iran once and for all [42]. Netanyahu's electoral rival Gadi Eisenkot also supports strikes alongside economic pressure [11]. Former Israeli intelligence officer Danny Tsytrinovich called the assumption that another round of strikes can topple the Iranian regime `«однією з найбільших помилок Ізраїлю та США»` (one of Israel's and the US's biggest mistakes) [18]. Former US official Robert Malley said signs increasingly point to new attacks and warned that Washington can ensure an intense war but not a short one [29]. CSIS analyst Seth Jones argued that nothing can permanently halt Iran's nuclear program, but that strikes would allow Trump to begin a gradual exit and claim another delay [18]. Former President Barack Obama criticized Trump's handling of the war, saying he engaged in diplomacy instead of firing missiles and that the conflict has left allies and bases attacked, Americans killed and wounded, missile stocks depleted, and oil prices higher [30].
The Pentagon's $47.1 billion estimate includes roughly $29 billion for munitions replacement and $6 billion for equipment, but excludes repairs to bases damaged by Iranian missiles and drones [14][34]. Five Democratic senators led by Elizabeth Warren are pressing CENTCOM's commander to disclose base-repair costs briefed in classified session, after the Pentagon comptroller told lawmakers in July those costs could not be estimated [46]. At least half of 50 competitive US races aired Iran-related ads, with Democrats linking war votes to cost-of-living pain and Republican strategist Ron Bonjean advising his party to avoid the topic because "you're playing on the Democratic turf" [35].
Inside Iran, roughly 800 pharmaceutical products are in short supply including 90 essential ones, with 44 pharmaceutical and medical equipment companies destroyed since February [40][41]. Urban inflation reached 84.4 percent year-on-year, and fuel station visits rose with Tehran province gasoline consumption up about 30 percent [40]. Iranian officials conceded panic buying but insisted gasoline distribution is uninterrupted, and Food and Drug Administration head Mahdi Pirsalehi cast medicine-crisis reporting as a foreign campaign to portray Iran's conditions as unfavourable [40][41].
BBC Verify's satellite-based reconstruction identified the damaged tanker Gem No.2 and tracked the slick toward a Key Biodiversity Area, situating the strike within a record surge of vessel attacks around Hormuz [43]. War-risk insurance premiums for Gulf transits have risen as much as tenfold, with US-, UK- and Israeli-linked ships priced roughly three times higher and nicknamed "missile magnets" [45]. The International Underwriting Association's Chris Jones said trade has been halted not by a lack of available insurance but by obvious safety concerns [45]. Washington, however, asserts that it has restored maritime transit and that regional oil trade has surpassed pre-conflict levels [22]. Oil rose above $115 a barrel after a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery [32].
Separately, the United States has conducted more than 70 strikes against suspected drug vessels in the Pacific since September 2025, killing at least 240 people, with US officials justifying the campaign as self-defense within an armed conflict with cartels while Democratic legislators and military-law scholars scrutinize the targeting [6].
A pre-4 November summit in Turkey is planned bringing together Makkah Alliance states, Qatar and Iran [8]. Russia has offered to broker an end to the war, with Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko saying Moscow is ready to mediate if all sides show interest, though experts quoted in US-based analysis say Russia lacks leverage and GCC states do not see Moscow as a credible mediator [15][39]. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said inspectors cannot access attacked nuclear facilities to verify their status or whether nuclear material remains [17].