President Donald Trump declared that the United States no longer needs an agreement with Iran, writing on Truth Social that "those days have long since passed" and that Washington holds "their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait" [4][11][24]. The statement reversed Trump's earlier references to "momentum towards the end of this conflict" [16] and followed reports that Iran had told Qatar it would not negotiate over its nuclear program, with Qatar relaying the message to Washington [18]. Trump simultaneously directed Vice President JD Vance to focus on domestic anti-fraud efforts rather than the Iran file [3][8][15].
The declaration coincided with military attacks across multiple Gulf fronts. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it struck a US early-warning radar in Bahrain in retaliation for an attack on a telecommunications tower in Sirik, in southern Iran [2][26]. The IRGC said the strike was "a serious warning to the aggressor enemy" and that "should these violations and acts of aggression recur, the IRGC Aerospace Force stands in full readiness to engage without limits" [26]. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two supertankers were disabled by explosions after ignoring warnings, and Iran's army said two other tankers hit mines in the eastern Strait of Hormuz [27], while the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported vessels struck by unidentified projectiles off Ras Al Khaimah [27][28]. The Houthis claimed attacks on a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, an oil facility in Yanbu, and an Aramco building in Riyadh [11][30][37].
Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the US position as one of achieved objectives through economic pressure. Trump said Iran's economy and military had been destroyed, citing 301% inflation and saying Iran's army, navy, air force, and air defenses no longer function [19]. BBC Persian reported that the dollar passed 250,000 tomans and that official statistics showed the worst inflation in 80 years [31]. Rubio said there is "no need for major combat operations" because economic pressure and negotiations are proving effective [5][33]. US Central Command said its forces are still enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports [26]. The Central Bank of Iran acknowledged that Iran's oil exports had effectively fallen to zero [35].
Iranian negotiators rejected the framing of a sustainable status quo. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, said Tehran is open to a deal if Washington "refrains from excessive demands" but will not accept a "no war, no peace" stalemate, adding that "the ball is now in the American court" and that the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status [16][22][26]. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, denied that negotiations were taking place and said American claims about continuing talks were aimed at easing economic pressure and reducing oil prices [5]. Iran laid down conditions including lifting the naval blockade, sanctions relief, releasing frozen funds, and formally declaring the war over [16].
Iranian military and security figures articulated a doctrine of extended retaliation. Rezaei warned that if American planes take off from distant military bases, including in European countries, to bomb Iran, "we will also target that base" [9][33]. Mohammad Mokhber, adviser to Iran's supreme leader, told Europe that any complicity in the US blockade would be "an act of war that will be etched in the nation's historical memory" [9]. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei warned countries under US pressure that participating in military or sanctions actions against Iran would constitute participation in aggression, saying labels such as "protecting shipping" or "countering piracy" do not change the illegality [25].
The war's domestic political cost in the United States surfaced in the midterm elections. Vance publicly blamed the Iran war for the Republican Party's midterm losses, saying "the reason we lost is the war" [4][8][15]. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump privately criticized a June memorandum with Iran, arguing it gave Tehran a chance to rebuild forces and raise oil revenue before the naval blockade, though a White House official denied Trump had doubts [23]. Democrats promised investigations into the administration's conduct of the war and related enrichment of the president's family [8].
Analysts and regional mediators warned that the current equilibrium cannot hold. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said "the more effective America's pressure campaign becomes, the greater Iran's incentive to break the impasse by force" [16]. Georgetown University Qatar professor Gerd Nonneman said the US may temporarily prefer the status quo but that "that will never be a sustainable strategy as it is prohibitively expensive" [16]. Robert Malley, Barack Obama's former chief Iran negotiator, called Trump's Gulf war a disaster and said Trump fears ending it would make him look like a loser, leading Malley to expect a US withdrawal from the region [6]. Iraqi Kurdish leader Bafel Talabani urged the US to talk with Iran, saying Iran is emerging "stronger but different" from the war [20]. Israeli assessments, reported by Ynet, described the US-Iran exchanges as a limited confrontation [40].
Gulf states caught between the belligerents pressed for restraint. Trump said Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain asked him not to launch a new major attack on Iran [12]. The Saudi Ministry of Energy confirmed the East-West pipeline was targeted in the Medina region, causing a limited fire without injuries [29]. The UAE Foreign Ministry condemned an Iranian drone attack as a dangerous escalation and held Iran "fully responsible" [40]. The UN Security Council unanimously extended Yemen-related sanctions for an additional year and condemned Houthi attacks, demanding an immediate halt to military escalation [30].
Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz led shipping companies to reroute or suspend traffic [28][34]. Brent crude rose 3.3% to $95.82 after Trump's statement [10], with further pressure from Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and Iranian reports of tanker strikes [37]. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) documented 181 maritime security incidents since March 1, attributing the threat to Iranian attacks and harassment [28]. The Verband Deutscher Reeder (VDR) observed the situation with concern, and Hapag-Lloyd suspended shipping traffic through the strait [34]. The Liberia-flagged tanker Dominica Prosperity was struck off Ras Al Khaimah, with its 22-member crew evacuated by the UAE Coast Guard [28]. In Africa, economists documented fuel-price pressure in Nigeria, Suez revenue losses in Egypt, and port strain in South Africa from rerouted vessels [38], while Kenya's energy ministry assured sufficient fuel stocks through April 2026 and shipping-industry officials warned of freight-rate increases [39].
Russian analysts framed the crisis as a commercial benefit. Igor Yushkov of the Financial University under the Russian government said any escalation in the Middle East benefits Russia in terms of commodity supplies and prices, noting that competition between China and India for Russian oil is reducing discounts [35].
Qatar said it is working to resolve the crisis and that both sides have made positive statements about diplomacy [16]. The G20 foreign ministers' meeting is expected to address Hormuz, Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and Black Sea maritime security, with Turkey conveying a message on diplomatic solutions and energy security [36].